Covid-19 in New York... It's Over?

If you look at the number of cases and number of deaths (December 7th New York, John Hopkins) in New York it's obvious that deaths are not aligned with cases anymore. What's going on here? The same thing is happening in New Jersey, Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Covid-19 hit many states hard last Spring and now those states are not experiencing a death rate that justifies more lock downs as cases spike. 

As a nation we could prevent nearly 5,800 cars being hit by trains each year if we ONLY invested in improved railroad crossings and built more bridges. But the cost of this would be too massive to justify the expenditure so it would seem that doing everything to save lives does have a limit. Just like the cost of shutting down businesses in New York has a limit. It's very possible that large cities reliant on mass transit will take years to recover long after the memory of Covid fades.

When it Rains Democrats Don't Vote...

For years the Republican narrative was bad weather on election day was good for the party. Clearly bad weather keeping Democrats from the polls has gone the way of CD's (seems that vinyl records are "cool" again). Mail in voting solves so many problems for the Democrats and I'm not suggesting that it makes it easier to carry out voter fraud which of course it does.

A little research into the Detroit election present and past show that Biden didn't out perform Obama. Furthermore, Obama only got a little over 50% of the registered vote which I thought was really odd. Maybe the old GOP joke that Republicans have to win by 2-3 points to overcome voter fraud isn't based on truth. However, one can't dismiss all the Democrats that have served time in prison or are currently serving time for voter fraud which doesn't fit the medias narrative that voter fraud doesn't exist.

So if you had to really guess what happened in 2020 I think the best answer is the Dems spent their time and resources on a massive get out the mail vote effort. They kept Joe Biden away from the microphone as much as possible and behind closed doors did what they needed to do to bank votes early and often.

Clearly the result was many dead people, those who recently moved and the occasional voter finding out they had already voted. This happened to me once when my EX wife voted and they checked me off as having already voted. This is not voter fraud as far as the Dems are concerned... This might just be, in some areas, business as usual

Normally this type of "extra voting" doesn't turn elections but just like baseball teams who stole signs during the world series, it can have an impact. Think about that... In front of millions teams find ways to cheat. Thinking voter fraud doesn't exist is childish.

Case in point. Minnesota reported a voter turn out over 91%. Before you blow the Viking horn and say way to go Minnesota, please note I'm a Minnesotan and I'm not happy. Not only is a 91% voter turn out statistical impossible, it's a sign of blatant voter fraud and massive voter harvesting. My guess is the Dems were really worried of losing Minnesota and pulled out all the stops to make sure that wasn't going to happen and seriously overachieved... Go Vikings!

Update: The Minnesota turn out number of 91.32% is absolutely false. Other sources are showing 79.9% turn out. I need to go to Minnesota.gov and figure this out. By the way any turn out above 80% is a huge red flag of a rigged election. So awesome that Minnesota is 1/10 of a percentage point below the red flag percentage. Hummmmm

Re-Thinking COVID-19 Mask Policy

Multiple large scale, randomized and blind studies indicate cloth masks, including surgical masks, don't prevent you from getting COVID-19 or any other respiratory virus. Matter of fact, many doctors including famously the US Surgeon General and Dr. Anthony Fauci have explained that masks may be counter productive. That said, on April 3rd, 2020 Dr. Fouci nails US policy on masks (starting at 3:50) which outlines the basic thought about masks that stand to this day. Cloth masks don't protect you but they reduce your ability to spread the virus. Bottom line, according to the "science" if you can't maintain social distancing wear a mask.

So here is the sore spot...

According the the CDC surviving COVID-19 earns you immunity for three months. As of yesterday 11,279,800 Americans have had the virus and yet the media hasn't mentioned they are immune. They are still wearing masks and going about life as if they could infect someone or get infected again and die. Even President Trump said he "might" be immune just weeks after his recovery. This is NUTS. Of course the President was immune and so is everyone who has recovered from COVID-19. 

How many stories have you read about people getting COVID-19 again after recovery? The first reinfection in the United States was reported on October 12th. A young Nevada man had a touch of the bug in April and later got it again. Study of his case showed that he caught two distinct strains of the virus. Clearly the media is looking for examples of reinfection. Why? Because it's bad. It's scary and it's very rare... Think shark attack... Thus it's BIG NEWS.

Until such time you read STORY after STORY of people getting COVID-19 again you can safely conclude you can't get it again (yes there will always be outliers... shark attacks) for at least 7 months and counting. 

Why 7 months? 

April 14th with 3,778 deaths appears to be the United States COVID-19 peak and until hundreds of those infected in April pop positive again you can rest assured they are still immune.

People are waiting for the vaccine which looks like it will be 90 to 95 percent effective in order to return to normal life whereas recovering from COVID-19 seems to be 100% effective for seven months or more. Ponder that and lets all follow Dr. Fauci's advice with a twist. Masks should be worn by those without immunity or vaccination when you can't maintain six feet separation.

Lycoming Engine Cold Weather Pre-Heat

Being from Minnesota I've done my fair share of really cold, snow crunching (think below zero) winter flying and I've learned that preheating your engine makes life much easier.

It's that time of year again and many pilots will consider using preheat when the temp drops below freezing... This has always seemed odd to me so I did a little research.

Turns out some Lycoming models do need preheat below 20 degrees but for the vast majority of Lycoming engines the critical outside temp that requires preheat is 10 degrees not 32 degrees. My vote is we only preheat when temps are below 20 degrees.

In my research I came across a few good points to remember during your cold weather preflight and I've included the link if you're interested in brushing up on Lycoming cold weather ops.

Lycoming Cold Weather Opps

"If flight is planned for bad weather, the preflight inspection should include observation of the relief opening in the engine breather tube so that any freezing of moisture at the end of the breather will not result in a loss of engine oil. 

Once on board the aircraft, check the fuel-selector valve for freedom of movement. It may be frozen fast (this has happened), and you’d better find out while still on the ground.

Most of the time, we think of starting any engine as a very simple process. Just engage the starter, and listen for the engine to start purring. Unfortunately, when the weather turns cold, it is not always that simple. When dealing with a reciprocating aircraft engine, it may be essential to get a start on the first try in order to avoid icing over the spark plugs and making an immediate start impossible. In order to achieve a start on the first try, there are a number of factors to be considered. Those factors will be discussed in the following paragraphs."

Just tossing this out to the universe.

PS Did you know a fully charged battery will not freeze until -76 degrees Fahrenheit but a fully discharged battery will become a block of ice at 32 degrees?

Fake News - Trump Wins?

It was 1983 and my high school yearbook was being finished. My best friend was our class president and valedictorian (later graduated top Engineer of his class at Notre Dame) but for some reason the yearbook committee goofed and listed me as class president. For the record I wasn't my class president I was student body president and worked with the entire student council.

So clearly anyone researching my life would concluded my bio was wrong and that I had exaggerated my past. Let me be clear (drink) I really had fun being involved with my high school and class and we did some pretty neat things. Being asked to address my graduating class as Student Body President (I wasn't my class president) was one of the highlights of my life... A highlight that few of my classmates even remember which is something that humbles me to this day.

Today Americans by the millions will wait in line to vote even after roughly 90,000,000 Americans have already voted. I support our absentee voting system but massive early voting is not what our founding fathers wanted.

Let me be clear (drink) I absolutely believe and have placed bets that Trump will win and more importantly drive the nail in the coffin of our fake news society. If Trump wins how can anyone again believe polls or the press?

The press emphatically argues the following states are in play:

Arizona, Texas, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Northern Maine. What happens when Trump wins all of these States? What if most are not even close?

The close states will be Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. During this election cycle my ultimate BS meter will peg out if Trump actually wins Minnesota or Nevada.

So if Trump looses I'm going to scratch my head and wish Biden all my best. If he wins I'm going to brace for days, if not weeks of unrest and another four years of fake news. So let me be clear (drink) no matter what happens today Trump looses and so do we... Thank you fake news!

Voter Suppression is Real...

In 2018 Stacy Abrams lost her bid to become Georgia's Govenor by roughy 55,000 votes with the largest black turnout in the states history. The results, while close were not contested and yet this election is used as a prime example of voter suppression?

How can any rational person conclude the Georgia Govenors race was stolen via voter suppresssion? I have a theory. When the Left accuses conservatives of doing something in reality they are the ones doing exactly what they accuse.

This is a well-known psychological phenomenon known as projection. "Projection refers to unconsciously taking unwanted emotions or traits you don't like about yourself and attributing them to someone else. A common example is a cheating spouse who suspects their partner is being unfaithful."

I rarely do this but I'm going to toss out something I can't prove other than with common sense. As of late, all polls show Joe Biden with an ever growing lead over President Trump. It looks really bad or good depending on which side of the fence you sit. Now ask yourself have polls been wrong in the past?

Of course they have. That's a big duh. Now ask yourself when was the last time they were wrong in favor of Republicans?

It's likely the last wrong poll that favored the Republicans was Dewey's loss to Eisenhower. So what do polls have to do with voter suppression?

Polls impact fundraising. Low polling numbers equal fewer dollars, voter enthusiasm, etc... High polling numbers helps rally supporters of candidates who may not deserve support.

Push polls have been used to manipulate elections for decades and in many cases they are part of the dirty politics that both sides use.

So the next time you see poll data remember to ask yourself when was the last time the polls got a national election wrong in favor of the Republicans? Go Dewey!

Black Lives Matter (BLM)

The BLM website and their stated goals didn't make sense when I wrote this but it's clear their mission is not about saving black lives. If it was, then handguns and black on black shootings would be the focus.

SRA (Stop Resisting Arrest) is what we should be teaching all of our children. This is what we should drill into our young black men if we really cared about blacks dying at the hands of police. Regardless of how you look at it Statistically cops killing blacks is NOT an issue while resisting arrest absolutely is the problem and even then the narrative that white cops are killing black men is just not correct. Not even a little bit correct.

In a country of 330,000,000 million the number of black men killed by white cops, while NOT resisting arrest is as close to zero as you can statistically get. Don't believe me? The data is available. The reality is most cops never "pull" their weapon let alone discharge it and cops don't get into their "shop" and go look for trouble.

Before you march. Before your pick up a brick and toss it at a plate glass window. Before you loot neighborhood businesses. Before you set them on fire. Before you toss a Molotov cocktail at a police cruiser or worse... Before you pull down the statues of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Ulysses S. Grant, Col. Hans Christian Heg, etc, etc... Spend 30 minutes looking up the data.

Making excuses for bad actors, those high on drugs, drunk, hoodlums that feel they must resist arrest or saying blacks have a reason to fear the men and women in blue is literally killing our fellow Americans of all colors but mostly the efforts to save black lives ends up getting more black men arrested, injured and killed. It's so predictable that it's sad.

Cops rarely kill anyone. The chance of being killed while cooperating with the police is as close to zero as you can get in a country as large as the United States. Take a moment to Google and read this PDF: "Department of Justice use of force by police overview of national and local data"

PS If you happen to get beat up by the police and you were not resisting arrest there is a good chance you could sue and win a lot of cash for you and your family but it's really hard to sue if the cop's body camera shows you beating their ass.

The Ocean is Rising... Not So Fast

I absolutely love Maine's coastline. If you haven't had a chance to spend time in Maine you have missed out on one of the wonders of the planet. Maine's coast is special for many reasons. From rock formations out west that date back 1.5 billion years to recent glacial events of the last 12-14 thousand years that pushed rocks weighing tons miles rounding them off into easily recognized glacial erratics... Maine's coast is exceptional.

A few years ago I blogged about a University of Maine study conducted for the Maine geological survey that concluded from 1930 to 1992 sea level rise in Portland Maine averaged about 2.2 mm per year.

Almost 30 years after that study it's clear the studies predictions are off... Way off. The study concluded the actual increase was 2.2 mm per year. It also showed a low EPA estimate of 4.2 mm and a high of 29 mm per year.

The same tide gage today doesn't show the expected increase in level or the increase in rate. From 1912 to 2018 the average increase seemingly slowed to 1.88 mm per year.

Since the data goes back to 1900 the only reason for using 1930 and 1912 as your starting point is to find the maximum increase by cherry picking data. The problem with cherry picking data is eventually the data will simply speak for it's self.

The papers author's were: Joseph Kelly, Steven M. Dickson and Daniel Belknap.

National Retail Sales Tax (NRST) Experiment

Could the federal government conduct an income tax experiment?

States without a state income tax (Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming) are arguably out preforming income taxed states so why not eliminate their federal income tax as well and see what happens?

The lost federal revenue could be replaced by a national sales tax piggy backed on the state sales tax.

But that would be regressive!

Yep, but the National Retail Sales Tax (NRST) experiment in conjunction with a "basic income" rebate would eliminate the NRST's regressivity.

If a seven states experiment is a bridge too far how about picking just one state? I would suggest Washington.

Who's Threatening the Constitution

In the U.S. the Spanish Flu infected about a quarter of the population of 105 million and killed between 500,000 to 850,000. It strangly targeted the young as well as the elderly.

When COVID-19 deaths started in the United States I fully supported the initial two week shelter in place because we didn't know if this virus was going to be the next Spanish Flu and kill millions of Americans.

We saw it slam Italy and thought oh crap that could happen here. We are just now coming up with scientific theories of why "Italy" didn't happen in the U.S. ranging from Italy got the full strength "L" strain to the adverse impact of Italy's Lombardy region having some of the worst air quality in Europe resulting in compromised lungs which COVID-19 could easily attack.

However, when it became abundantly clear the death rate was at least a factor of ten lower for the United States and the bulk of victims were elderly WITH pre-existing conditions and children seemed to be immune, I raised the BS flag.

April 15th was my turning point. I began reaching out to Governor Mills in every way I could as the numbers kept coming in not at all inline with predictions. Yet our Govenor barely changed anything.

Her efforts to close down Maine and Maine businesses where not helpful and absolutely unconstitutional. You can't tell Maine business not to take reservations from non-residents.

To show case she's playing politics, our Govenor ordered the entire state to start wearing face masks as of May 1st? If masked are necessary why would you wait so long? Mask wearing in Maine became just another form of virtue signaling as our unemployment rate climbed and business began to worry how they could survive the Summer without tourists.

Good friends, clients, family members, etc... Have strong feelings about COVID-19. I don't share those "feelings" not because I'm insensitive. I don't share them because they are not backed up by numbers. The numbers are in, the facts are known, the media has hyped the living hell out of this and their shenanigans have been exposed over and over but few care as long as the narrative damages the Orange Man.

Pointing out that Maine COVID-19 deaths in 2020 are going to be fewer than Maine's 2017 flu deaths is seen as uncaring when in reality it's just the numbers and unless we do things differently our Govenor's policies will end up killing more people than COVID-19.

Pointing out city after city across the United States added thousands and thousands of hospital beds of which only a tiny percentage were ever used is true but not politically correct. Making it clear that New York never needed 10,000 let alone 40,000 ventilators isn't uncaring. It's now clear this virus for the normally healthy is just a little more deadly than the seasonal flu with one big difference... Statistically it's NOT fatal to children.

Yes we all have heard the stories of children dying and strange lung issues but the stats are in and children don't die from COVID-19 and we are now learning they are not walking around infecting people.

Let's just say common sense has once again fought it's way to the surface. Go figure that this virus is not some super bug. It's acting like a virus. It's lethality is decreasing (viral attenuation) with each generation. It's dying off as the weather warms. It's killing the old and feeble and it's now being politicized.

I know it's easy to get sucked into the Orange Man bad story line, but I'm not going to worry about that for now. He has been repeatedly accused of being the most dangerous President to our democracy in history. I argue the clear and present danger to our Democracy is not "Don the Con" but the Govenors who have taken this "emergency" to far and continue to shred the Constitution and Declaration of Independence that every service member and elected official has repeatedly sworn an oath to support and defend against all enemies both foreign and domestic.

Does the oath really mean so little? People risked everything to fight for our freedom. People gave their lives earning and preserving this freedom. We owe it to them and our children to remember this. "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Ben Franklin

Brigadier General Samuel McCobb