Honestly - They Sky is Not Falling

The call on the answering machine was clear and concise. There would be an armed guard at every Virginia Beach elementary Monday morning and for the foreseeable future.

As the country recovers from the shock of last week's shooting, the cries for new stricter gun laws echo throughout Congress.

I'm NOT an expert but a few things seem obvious to me:  These mentally disturbed, young, white men are seeking attention and fame which is exactly what they get. The feel-good bills that will inevitably be signed into law will do nothing to decrease this kind of crime. Our schools, malls, theaters, subways, trains, etc. will continue to be soft targets in some cases specifically because guns are banned.

Last year approximately 32,000 people lost their lives on U.S. roads. Over the last ten years this death toll adds up to 392,000 men, women and especially thousands of children.  That's enough bodies to annually fill the average NFL stadium to 50% capacity. Yet for some reason our society determines the way you die is more important than being dead.

By all means make our soft targets less soft. Ban the bushmaster or all assault rifles if it can be shown to statistically help and for sure find ways to help these troubled young men before they become known by the masses. But the truth is, we know our schools and colleges are among the safest places our young people can spend their day and the Sky is NOT falling.

Why Not Go Over the Fiscal Cliff?

For starters the DOW will likely drop 900 points and 1.5% trillion dollars in equity will evaporate in a few days but more importantly we can't afford to miss this opportunity to actually make tough political changes.

The Republicans want to see spending reductions and entitlement reform before they agree to raise taxes while the Democrats keep pounding the drum of tax fairness and indicate they will not make changes to entitlements.

It's self evident that the social security retirement age must be raised to keep the program solvent and benefits means tested.  Next, move the charitable deduction from Schedule "A" to the front of the 1040 and limit total Schedule "A" deductions to an amount that will not impact 80% of tax payers. 

This is just a start. Other issues like the payroll tax cut, capital gains taxes, defense spending, etc... still need to be addressed but let's agree it would be a bad idea to start the New Year with a market in a tail spin and continued economic stagnation if not double dip recession.

Election Day 2012

Election Day 2012

It's the morning of November 6th and a few days back I called the race for the President.  Now with the stock market going up I'm thinking maybe I'm wrong but then again gold is also surging.  I've always known that the market really doesn't care which party is in office but I'm starting to think that just maybe gold does.

According to "Kramer" over the last four years gold is up 101%.  Should we all go out and buy gold?  Can't comment on that but I think it's interesting to ponder what the election means for the country and markets.

Twelve years ago at roughly 4:00 in the morning CBS and many other media outlets concluded they had really messed up in Florida and said the race was just too close to call.  The nationwide popular vote at that time was displayed as:

Gore 45,752,056      

Bush 45,943,474

Of course it all boiled down to the Florida recount.  Gore's people argued basically two things.  When someone voted for both Bush and Gore (overvote possible when using punch cards) you could look at who else they voted for to determine what the voter's intention was.  Next Gore's people argued that when no vote for president was recorded (undervote) you could also deduce who they would have voted for by looking at the other votes.

The Supreme Court unanimously rejected this line of logic and then along party lines ruled 5–4 that no constitutionally valid recount could be completed by the December 12th "safe harbor" deadline. They concluded that time was up for a recount and the certification of Florida's election was to be accepted.

The issue I had with this was even more basic.  Gore's team wanted the recount with the interpretation of voter intent to be conducted in specific democratic dominated counties like Miami-Dade and Broward.  This fight delayed the  statewide recount such that time ran out and no "meaningful" statewide recount was conducted

One thing that many Democrats refuse to acknowledge is that the exhaustive independent media sponsored recount after the Court's decision showed Bush would have won the election had the recount Gore requested been allowed to continue. However a statewide recount allowing official interpretation of "undervotes," or "overvotes," just  might have made Gore the winner but we will never know.  FYI, the official margin for Bush was recorded at 537 votes but the media coordinated recount was Bush by 493 based on what the Florida Supreme Court ordered but was overruled by the US Supreme Court.

No matter what you think about the 2012 election I hope we never go down the road of Florida in 2000 again.

PS Novermber 10th 2012 - Electoral College with President Obama 303, Mitt Romney 206 and Florida's 29 Electoral votes?  Still not officially determined... LOL

 Do Nothing Congress...

"Congress is on pace to make history with the least productive legislative year in the post World War II era.  Just 61 bills have become law to date in 2012 out of 3,914 bills that have been introduced by lawmakers, or less than 2% of all proposed laws.  In 2011, after Republicans took control of the U.S. House, Congress passed just 90 bills into law.  These statistics make the 112th Congress, covering 2011-12, the least productive two-year gathering on Capitol Hill since the end of World War II." Anonymous - VA Pilot

Well Mr. Anonymous if this Congress is the do nothing Congress I'm OK with that.  With the exception of emergencies, I wouldn't mind seeing Congress do nothing for a few more years.  Why is more legislation the answer?

I don't feel more free, safer or better off because Congress passed 90 bills into law.  Major job and business killing financial regulation (something I know a little bit about) like Dodd-Frank didn't even address the main reason it was envisioned; to reign in "too big to fail" financial institutions.

Maybe we should be more concerned with RESULTS rather that the number of laws passed.  That and it would be nice to at least go through the motions of passing a federal budget... It's been 1238 days since the Democrat controlled Senate passed one.

Curiosity Lands on Mars!

I have to admit that the possibility of the Martian rover Curiosity crashing into a mountain three miles tall and 96 miles in diameter was very much on my mind. NASA was trying not one but three new technologies to land a nuclear powered Jeep size rover on Mars. Remember, all of this is from an organization who mixed up feet and meters and drilled a probe into Mars just a few years ago?

Well my hats off to NASA and I'm pumped that the SKY CRANE worked and Curiosity settled near the foot of a mountain inside the Gale Crater. This is a huge week for NASA, the United States, American's and the world in general.

Will Curiosity find past life? If it does, it just might be a game changer and something I believe our collective human consciousness could really use.

"Today, the wheels of Curiosity have begun to blaze the trail for human footprints on Mars. Curiosity, the most sophisticated rover ever built, is now on the surface of the Red Planet, where it will seek to answer age-old questions about whether life ever existed on Mars -- or if the planet can sustain life in the future," said NASA Administrator Charles Bolden.

"A smooth sea never made a skilled mariner."

English proverb          

The Virginian-Pilot
© July 7, 2012

We need some price tags

Recently, former U.S. Sen. Tom Daschle, a Democrat, said, 'Health care is probably the only sector in this economy where at the time of purchase you don't know what it's going to cost or who is going to pay.'

When I heard Daschle say this, I was flummoxed. I agree with Tom Daschle?

The Affordable Health Care Act includes roughly twice the number of words as 'Harry Potter and The Order of the Phoenix,' and is full of good ideas and new taxes, but it never mentions cost transparency.

I'm tired of having very little, if any, clue about what something is going to cost before a doctor's visit or medical procedure. I'm tired of asking about the cost and getting nothing but a blank stare.

Dave Beemer
Virginia Beach

Transparent Healthcare

Last Sunday Tom Daschle said "Healthcare is probably the only sector in this economy where at time of purchase you don't know what it's going to cost or who is going to pay."

When I heard Mr. Daschle say this I was flummoxed.  I replayed the segment a few times, wrote down his words and shook my head while muttering to myself - I concur with Tom Daschle?

The Affordable Health Care for America Act has roughly twice the words as Harry Potter and The Order of the Phoenix, is full of good ideas and new taxes but never mentions cost transparency.  I'm tired of having very little, if any clue what something is going to cost prior to a doctors visit or procedure.  I'm tied of asking and getting nothing but a cursory, "I'm sorry" to a deathly blank stare.

Is it overly simplistic to suggest that cost transparency might be the "Golden Snitch" of health care? Clearly both Tom and I think it's worth a try so why do we continue to practice 21st century medicine with 19th century billing?

Outboard Mercury 115 HP false low oil alarm.

The alarm goes beep, beep, beep and it's really loud!  Besides low oil there are basically three things that can cause this alarm to fail and go off.  The sensor fails, the tank magnet separates from the float or the low oil warning module fails.

The sensor is a bit thinner than a pencil and about two inches long.  It is likely the 1st thing you want to check because it's easy.  With the ignition on (alarm is going off) remove the single screw at the bottom of the tank and pull out the sensor by carefully tugging on the two wires.  It should just slide out.  Once out the alarm may stop.  If it does stop take a strong magnet and put it near the sensor.  If the alarm goes back on you can assume the magnet in the tank has separated from it's float. I've been told this is common and because it's a molded unit you have to buy a new tank:  Part #8628A7

If nothing happens when you pull the sensor and touch it with a magnet it could be a bad sensor or it could be a bad alarm unit:  Part #14857A6

I read many reports of owners who had this problem and just disconnected the sensor or cut wires that later ran out of oil and destroyed their engine which is going to cost you about $8,000.  A new tank (with magnet float) is about $60 bucks and not that tough to install yourself or you could pay $250 to have it done.

Water Vapor is the Primary Greenhouse Gas

Re "CARBON INCREASES, APATHY HOLDS STEADY" Sunday Virginian Pilot 6/3/12

The Pilot's "view" states that CO2 is the primary greenhouse gas and the chief culprit in Earth's rising temperatures.

This is just not true.  As a scientist I find myself constantly explaining that 99.96% of the Earth's atmosphere is 78.08% Nitrogen, 20.95% Oxygen and .93% Argon with the primary greenhouse gas being water vapor - not CO2.  The end of the last glacial period was about 12,500 years ago and for many of us the Earth is not only warming, in Maine the crust is still rebounding roughly 1 cm per year from the weight of nearly two miles of ice recently melting.

Ice core data over the last 600,000 years show the Earth has repeatedly warmed and cooled and yes there is a correlation between rising temperatures and rising atmospheric CO2 levels but this correlation isn't as we have been lead to believe.  The increase in CO2 over the last 100+ years is partially man made but the prehistoric rise in CO2 had nothing to do with man. These increases were likely due to the world's oceans, tundra, and permafrost belching massive amounts of CO2 as the oceans an and soil warm.  I'm not saying the Earth isn't warming - I'm just saying that suggesting CO2 at 400 PPM (parts per million) and the associated infinitesimally weak greenhouse effect is causing global warming is like saying umbrellas cause rain.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gases.html

http://web.mit.edu/angles2008/angles_Emmanuel_Quiroz.html

http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/cryosphere/6b.html


Update March 1st 2017 - Turns out the 400,000 year saw tooth temperature and CO2 graph (below) that Al Gore used from the very beginning was misrepresented. Five years after Al Gore started to use this graph more data was filled in and it turns out that CO2 lags temperature by 400 to 1000 years. Even after molesting the data and assuming gas bubble migrate the conclusion from one highly respected group was CO2 lags by only 150 years which they used to dismiss the whole subject. I don't know what it's called when you dismiss science that doesn't fit the prescribed narrative but I for one continue to shake my head in disbelief.

Al Gore's graph which made so much sense... At the time.

With more data points it clear CO2 lags Temperature 

Venus Transits the Sun and No One Living Will See it Again

Venus transits the Sun. I'm not going to be around the next time (105 years) so I thought I would take some pictures. PS For you flat Earth people this is proof that at least Venus is a sphere or a disk...

And the Navy Said it Wasn't Punishment...

In 1992 LTJG Thorne said he was gay to a national TV audience.  Unfortunately, at this time in our countries history gays could not serve in the military.  Talking to the media about his homosexual preference while on active duty 20 years ago shouldn't disqualify him to sit on the bench today.  I actually believe fighting for what you think is right, regardless of the consequences, is a quality we should all aspire to.

Society changes slowly. For example, Galileo was found guilty of heresy in 1633 for supporting Copernican astronomy. He spent the last nine years of his life under house arrest for something that he knew to be true via his own eyes.

In 1992 I didn’t have an opinion on gays serving. I knew gays served and the policy at that time was pretty straightforward. You're gay, you're out. I would NOW argue the regulation that prohibited gays from serving was fundamentally wrong. Like Galileo, the LTJG Thornes of this world who knew the regulation to be wrong, stood up to be heard and paid a heavy price twenty years ago and again last Tuesday.

LTJG Thorne likely didn’t know that there were roughly 40,000 active duty gays serving in 1992. But he did know that speaking out on national TV was a violation of the UCMJ Article 133, Conduct Unbecoming an Officer. The beef is this showed poor leadership and decision-making skills when he opted to "come out" on national television. I would argue, based on what I read in the Board of Inquiry transcript, that he was an outstanding officer, an up-and-coming leader, had a strong moral compass and was doing what history will one day show to be in the highest tradition of the naval service.

One thing that keeps rattling in my mind from reading the Board of Inquiry transcript is this: By 1992, no other major organization in the US other than the US Military was actively discriminating against gays for just being gay. If it wasn’t for service members like LTJG Thorne, I’m certain there would still be a ban on gays in the military, who now and have always numbered in the tens of thousands.

Research to back up the 40,000 gays in the military:

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004598.html

http://www.urban.org/uploadedPDF/411069_GayLesbianMilitary.pdf

LTJG Thorne's Board of Inquiry transcript:

http://dont.stanford.edu/cases/thorne/thornbi1.pdf

AFTER THOUGHTS

I can't think of anyone better to make the case that LTJG Thorne was acting in the highest tradition of the Naval Service than Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

When asked why gays should be allowed to openly serve he said "I have served with homosexuals since 1968,"  "No matter how I look at the issue, I cannot escape being troubled by the fact that we have in place a policy which forces young men and women to lie about who they are in order to defend their fellow citizens." "For me, it comes down to integrity – theirs as individuals and ours as an institution."  Admiral Mullen retired a week later and when asked why he spoke out against the ban on gays he said he did it for reasons of conscience.

LTJG Thorne wasn't a radical making a point.  He was a young (STUPID) naval officer who came to the realization he was gay and spoke out against a policy he knew to be fundamentally wrong.  That he did so while still serving is technically a violation of the UCMJ, but there are times when violating the UCMJ is exactly what leadership requires.  The two Langley F-22 Raptor pilots technically violated the UCMJ when they went on 60 minutes saying they were being persecuted for refusing to fly a plane they knew to be unsafe.  They did what they did because it needed to be done.  I would argue LTJG Throne was doing something that needed to be done too.

It's important to note that just eighteen months after LTJG Thorne was honorably discharged, Don't Ask Don't Tell became law.  Although over 14,000+ service members were forcible removed from the military under DADT it served as an important transition to the September 20, 2011 lifting of the gay service ban.

Taxes and Burgers - National Retail Sales Tax

Taxes and Burgers

As the sun sets, sounds of neighbors enjoying the evening remind me that I've spent this weekend doing my taxes, not cooking burgers. Since 1987 I've done my own taxes and I know first hand what a mess our tax system has become. Like frogs enjoying a warming kettle bath, we are collectively being cooked.

According to the IRS website, in 2006 tax compliance required 7.6 billion hours, not including the millions of hours needed to comply with IRS requests and audits. No amount of tweaking, fixing or reform can salvage the current system. It's time we start over and at this point I don't really care what over looks like because contrary to popular opinion, I don't think even the government can make what we have now worse.

Mr. President, please stop talking about what percentage Mr. Buffet pays and consider a National Retail Sales Tax (NRST). Yes, it would be regressive which would require beefing up government programs to protect the poor and working poor. Perhaps eliminating the estate tax below $100 million and making it fifty percent above would help offset the increased government help to those now paying federal taxes for the first time.

I for one would like to stop worrying about taxes and just get on with my life and enjoy cooking burgers this time of year.

Build Parallel Toll Tunnels Next to the Current Tunnels

Re: April 3rd, front page Virginian Pilot

You don't need a multimillion dollar study to determine Hampton Roads desperately needs another crossing at the HRBT and downtown Norfolk. Float a bond, form a public-private partnership or do both and toll the new tunnels via E-ZPass until they are paid for.

If the Governor wants to turn Virginia's section of I-95 into a turnpike that's one thing, but putting tolls on tunnels and bridges that have long been paid for is poor policy, bad for business and is likely against state law.

Construction of parallel toll tunnels next to the current free tunnels seems like an obvious solution, but I haven't heard anyone even mention this.

"Getting real about transportation"

Why is stating the obvious so difficult? With a total tax of 19.8 cents per gallon, Virginia ranks 40th as the least-taxed in the union. As Virginia's transportation infrastructure ages and rush hour road times increase, those elected don't seem to have the will to even increase the gas tax to keep pace with inflation.

I've supported Governor McDonnell's "Public-Private" approach to transportation but I don't support adding tolls on tunnels that for as long as I can remember have been toll free. Last year I suggested an increase in the gas tax as the logical way to help pay for roads, bridges and tunnels. I also encouraged Public-Private solutions and suggested the construction of a parallel Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel that would use E-Z Pass to collect revenue.

Increasing the gas tax for inflation and starting the construction of Public-Private parallel toll tunnels at the Downtown and the HRBT seems obvious to me, but I haven't heard anyone even mention this.

Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich?

I thought Super Tuesday wasn't going to be a big deal for Virginia, but just maybe, we Virginia's will have a significant impact on picking our next President. I wonder how many of us will vote Tuesday for someone they don't support?

If Governor Romney wins Ohio, by say double digits, it's likely the death blow to Senator Santorum's chances. If Santorum happens to squeak out a win, we could be looking at a battle to Memorial Day, with the possibility of the GOP hopefuls showing up in Tampa without a nominee.

With only Ron Paul and Mitt Romney on the ballot our vote will expose or endorse Governor Romney's candidacy. With Governor McDonnell actively supporting Romney, campaigning for him in Florida and coming 2nd in the CPAC 2012 straw poll for Vice President,Virginia indeed is playing an active roll this year.

It's possible we could have a Romney/McDonnell ticket this fall. I think the odds are as good as a Santorum/Gingrich ticket, which would have a better shot at the Rust Belt, bring onboard the South and give President Obama a run for his money. Who knows... This has already been one of the strangest primary seasons in my lifetime... Anyone up for another debate?

“Foreign Oil? Who Needs It!”

This Friday’s front page indicates it’s likely the US produced 81% of its energy needs last year. Of course demand has been lower, but for the first time in years it’s possible we have a real shot at energy independence, which would radically change the way we look at the world, specifically the Middle East.

What more can we do? For starters, we can realize that phase four of the Keystone pipeline is not an environmental threat to the Ogallala Aquifer- already crisscrossed by 25,000 miles of pipeline, when compared to the existing massive spiderweb of oil pipelines buried in the Louisiana wetlands and Gulf of Mexico. Next, it’s time we seriously consider T. Boone Pickens' idea of converting our trucking industry to natural gas. As an environmentalist, I would love to see less sulfur-rich diesel soot being belched on our highways. The trucking industry- if offered incentives and provided with the needed infrastructure to fuel up on liquefied natural gas- has made it clear they would embrace the alternative fuel. Furthermore, converting truck stops to dual-fuel would create thousands and thousands of jobs and help kick start the economy.

The money we spend converting our trucking industry to natural gas will reduce pollution, help the economy, and improve up our national security. Five years ago, the thought of 100% energy independence seemed laughable, but at 81%, the only question now is this: do our leaders have the vision to finish what Jimmy Carter started when he created the Department of Energy in the fall of 1977?

The Virginian-Pilot
© January 11, 2012

Not so Super Tuesday

Ten states from Alaska to Virginia will likely determine President Obama's GOP challenger on March 6. For years, I've collected signatures for local, state and federal candidates, and it saddens me that only Ron Paul and Mitt Romney made our ballot. Virginia will basically sit this one out.With the modern main street being a mega-mall, it's harder than ever to collect signatures, which is why the Colorado Supreme Court ruled signature collectors couldn't be thrown out of malls. No kidding. Regardless, it's embarrassing to our state and the candidates who failed to collect the needed signatures.

I support emergency legislation, not to change the guidelines but to permit a write-in on our primary ballot, thus allowing Virginia's vote to be relevant this election cycle.

David Beemer
Virginia Beach