Saturday, March 21, 2020

World War III - Is it Possible?

Like many I haven't posted for a while because I've been working 10-12 hours days for the last two weeks. It's been nuts and this latest market dump has exposed major weaknesses in the way I do business and communicate with my clients. Much of it due to government regulations and my company going above and beyond government guidelines which drives me nuts especially when those rules negatively impact the consumer, but that's not what I want or can talk about here.

World War III is something no one is talking about. I believe the "evil four" are up to something. Russia is talking to China. Iran is talking to China. China controls North Korea. Iran is talking with Russia and lastly China has at least 31 million more men than women. Doesn't anyone see a problem here?

The Wuhan Virus is bad but is it bad enough to justify locking down the western world? Can the American economy survive what some states and some local governments are doing? If it continues for months the answer is absolutely no!

Here is what few are talking about. Thousands are going to die as the result of the Wuhan Virus. We can save many if the infection curve is flatten to such an extent that the national health care system is not crushed, but at what cost? I argue the world economy is so interconnected that we are looking at a worldwide recession if not a depression in the coming weeks. In the past, it's the developing countries that suffer the most and millions will die directly and even more will suffer from a collapsed world economy.

Does it really make sense to save thousands at the cost of millions?

Furthermore, my specific warning is China, Russia, Iran and North Korea could easily use this crisis as a cover for advancing their objectives or even starting a war. I've been saying for years the United States Navy in the Pacific will loose as much as 50% of their forces in the first few days of a kinetic (shooting) war with China. I wouldn't put it past Putin to use this potential conflict to reposition Russia as a world leader and even Iran could use it to break the embargo that's crushing their economy and threating their leadership.

The world is not a safe place right now and the Wuhan Virus may represent the best chance in years for the evil four. China's economy was on a major downswing before the US trade sanctions and it's safe to say they were not looking forward to future negotiations with the Trump Administration. Russia's position in the world is nothing compared to what it was and with oil prices falling and the United States reclaiming energy dominance they are grabbing at straws. Furthermore, Putin is not getting any younger and my guess he is thinking legacy.

That leaves Iran and North Korea. Iran is on the verge of economic collapse and we haven't heard much of anything out of North Korea for quite a while. Both of these situations alarm me. Iran is the equivalent of a cornered animal and North Korea going dark is more than likely foreshadowing something bad. How a potential conflict will start I don't know, but it could quickly ramp up into something we don't want to think about. My guess... and it's a guess... is it will start with Iran and somehow that will involve China, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

If the media keeps pushing the administration to act and those actions result in the collapse of the US economy keep your eye on Iran, China, Russia and even North Korea. It's difficult to even mention this but the United States just might have to make decisions that cost lives now to save millions later. I hope our leaders are taking into consideration the big picture because I'm positive China and Russia have already war planned this senerario out in detail and will not pass up on a once in a lifetime chance to deal a blow to the United States.

PS  Russia has already sold it's US Treasuries. If China starts selling that will be a reg flag that they are positioning themselves for conflict if not a shooting war.