Sea Levels Will Rise 5 feet in next 86 years - BS!

"Leaders float plan to find ways to deal with sea rise"  Virginian-Pilot March 21, 2104

In Friday's paper Ben McFarlane was quoted saying sea levels could rise 5 feet by 2100 which is total BS.  Mr. McFarlane has served on HRPDC since 2008 and is our Regional Planner.  How can someone in this leadership position be so absolutely clueless when it comes to the science and projections of our local sea level rise.

Portsmouth, Virginia - The mean sea level trend is 3.76 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.45 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from 1935 to 1987 which is equivalent to a change of 1.23 feet in 100 years.

Sewells Point - The mean sea level trend is 4.44 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.27 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from 1927 to 2006 which is equivalent to a change of 1.46 feet in 100 years.

In Hampton Roads half of the rise is due to subsidence or settling associated with tidal areas and deltas.  Looking at NOAA's sea level data it's evident that Northern latitudes are still rebounding from the weight of the last glaciation and the data for geological stable areas indicate sea level has risen 8 inches since 1900 which is consistent with the observed post glaciation warming.

Our school children our taught the Chesapeake bay is the drowned, ancestral valley of the Susquehanna River.  As the earth warms the drowning continues and the most resent IPCC predictions are maxed out at 2.6 feet or 3 feet with subsidence with a consensus of half that.

If we are going to pick a number out of the air, why not pick 10 feet or 20 feet and plan for that?  NOAA's prediction is sea levels will rise in Hampton Roads by 1.5 feet in the next 100 years and this is what we need to plan for not what ever Mr. McFarlane dreams up to scare the locals.

Eastern Ukraine Will Fall Without Miltary Aid

Ukrainian is divided by the Dnieper River with mostly Russian speaking Ukrainians in the East.  It's no mystery that Vladimir Putin will likely invade the Eastern half of Ukraine and declare it Russian.  Right now the Ukrainian army is no match and it's likely, like Crimea, they may not even offer resistance.

The European Union and the United States should take immediate actions to bolster the Ukrainian army with the following defensive equipment:

FIM-92 Stinger surface-to-air missiles

FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles

German lightweight Fly-K mortar systems

In addition, basic support such as uniforms, tents, mobile kitchens, MREs, small arms, ammunition (especially artillery rounds), etc… including logistic support and training should be offered by all democracies interested in preventing a continued Russian advancement into Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Moldova and Estonia.

Time is precious and the Ukrainian military needs training and arms to ensure a Russian incursion into Ukrainian territory would be too costly to consider.  “Whoever said the pen is mightier than the sword obviously never encountered automatic weapons.” General MaCarthur

FAA-2012-0731-0008

"Your comment will be viewable on Regulations.gov after the agency has reviewed it, which may be an indefinite amount of time. Use your tracking number (1jy-8b0e-kk6c) to find out the status of your comment." FAA

Here is my comment on AD FAA-2012-0731-0008:

We completed this AD on our 1972 PA-32-300 last March and I'm still angry. I'm angry because the FAA, once again, grossly under estimated the cost of AD compliance.

FAA - Inspection of the horizontal stabilator control system takes 5 hours.

FAA - Replacement of stabilator control cable per set at $1,558 parts and labor.

The AD specifically instructs the mechanic to inspect the cables and it would seem that FAA believes this can be done without removal. I talked to three shops and none of them would sign off on the work unless the cables were removed and inspected. I carefully read the AD, looked at diagrams, talked to mechanics and it was clear, removal was necessary. Two of the three shops strongly suggested it would be cost effective to skip the inspection and just purchase new cables which we did.

So the reality of this AD isn't a cable inspection. It's the removal and replacement of two sets of cables which the FAA estimates the cost to be $3,116.

If the mechanics I talked to and my analysis of what needs to be done as per the AD are correct, using the FAA numbers the compliance of this AD will cost Piper owners over $105,984,508!

You should budget more closer to $3,500 to $4,000 and use a shop experienced in this repair.

FYI, our cables were stretched but had no corrosion. It's clear the previous inspection requirement, if done, was good enough but there should be something more the FAA could do to make it clear this was a serious problem in lieu of a full blown $125 million repair.

When you look at the real cost of this AD, the amount of work needed, the hard physical labor, rubber mallet hammering alone... The cable replacement was absolutely a back breaker and it makes you wonder how many cable replacements will result in subsequent problems?

On the flip side, during the AD we took the opportunity to remove, paint and reinstall the horizontal stabilator which turned out to have significantly worn bushings. The result was a much tighter trim control and a horizontal stabilator with zero flutter/slop which improved performance.