In Friday's paper Ben McFarlane was quoted saying sea levels could rise 5 feet by 2100 which is total BS. Mr. McFarlane has served on HRPDC since 2008 and is our Regional Planner. How can someone in this leadership position be so absolutely clueless when it comes to the science and projections of our local sea level rise.
Portsmouth, Virginia - The mean sea level trend is 3.76 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.45 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from 1935 to 1987 which is equivalent to a change of 1.23 feet in 100 years.
Sewells Point - The mean sea level trend is 4.44 mm/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.27 mm/year based on monthly mean sea level data from 1927 to 2006 which is equivalent to a change of 1.46 feet in 100 years.
In Hampton Roads half of the rise is due to subsidence or settling associated with tidal areas and deltas. Looking at NOAA's sea level data it's evident that Northern latitudes are still rebounding from the weight of the last glaciation and the data for geological stable areas indicate sea level has risen 8 inches since 1900 which is consistent with the observed post glaciation warming.
Our school children our taught the Chesapeake bay is the drowned, ancestral valley of the Susquehanna River. As the earth warms the drowning continues and the most resent IPCC predictions are maxed out at 2.6 feet or 3 feet with subsidence with a consensus of half that.
If we are going to pick a number out of the air, why not pick 10 feet or 20 feet and plan for that? NOAA's prediction is sea levels will rise in Hampton Roads by 1.5 feet in the next 100 years and this is what we need to plan for not what ever Mr. McFarlane dreams up to scare the locals.
