The Ocean is Rising... Not So Fast

I absolutely love Maine's coastline. If you haven't had a chance to spend time in Maine you have missed out on one of the wonders of the planet. Maine's coast is special for many reasons. From rock formations out west that date back 1.5 billion years to recent glacial events of the last 12-14 thousand years that pushed rocks weighing tons miles rounding them off into easily recognized glacial erratics... Maine's coast is exceptional.

A few years ago I blogged about a University of Maine study conducted for the Maine geological survey that concluded from 1930 to 1992 sea level rise in Portland Maine averaged about 2.2 mm per year.

Almost 30 years after that study it's clear the studies predictions are off... Way off. The study concluded the actual increase was 2.2 mm per year. It also showed a low EPA estimate of 4.2 mm and a high of 29 mm per year.

The same tide gage today doesn't show the expected increase in level or the increase in rate. From 1912 to 2018 the average increase seemingly slowed to 1.88 mm per year.

Since the data goes back to 1900 the only reason for using 1930 and 1912 as your starting point is to find the maximum increase by cherry picking data. The problem with cherry picking data is eventually the data will simply speak for it's self.

The papers author's were: Joseph Kelly, Steven M. Dickson and Daniel Belknap.

National Retail Sales Tax (NRST) Experiment

Could the federal government conduct an income tax experiment?

States without a state income tax (Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming) are arguably out preforming income taxed states so why not eliminate their federal income tax as well and see what happens?

The lost federal revenue could be replaced by a national sales tax piggy backed on the state sales tax.

But that would be regressive!

Yep, but the National Retail Sales Tax (NRST) experiment in conjunction with a "basic income" rebate would eliminate the NRST's regressivity.

If a seven states experiment is a bridge too far how about picking just one state? I would suggest Washington.

Who's Threatening the Constitution

In the U.S. the Spanish Flu infected about a quarter of the population of 105 million and killed between 500,000 to 850,000. It strangly targeted the young as well as the elderly.

When COVID-19 deaths started in the United States I fully supported the initial two week shelter in place because we didn't know if this virus was going to be the next Spanish Flu and kill millions of Americans.

We saw it slam Italy and thought oh crap that could happen here. We are just now coming up with scientific theories of why "Italy" didn't happen in the U.S. ranging from Italy got the full strength "L" strain to the adverse impact of Italy's Lombardy region having some of the worst air quality in Europe resulting in compromised lungs which COVID-19 could easily attack.

However, when it became abundantly clear the death rate was at least a factor of ten lower for the United States and the bulk of victims were elderly WITH pre-existing conditions and children seemed to be immune, I raised the BS flag.

April 15th was my turning point. I began reaching out to Governor Mills in every way I could as the numbers kept coming in not at all inline with predictions. Yet our Govenor barely changed anything.

Her efforts to close down Maine and Maine businesses where not helpful and absolutely unconstitutional. You can't tell Maine business not to take reservations from non-residents.

To show case she's playing politics, our Govenor ordered the entire state to start wearing face masks as of May 1st? If masked are necessary why would you wait so long? Mask wearing in Maine became just another form of virtue signaling as our unemployment rate climbed and business began to worry how they could survive the Summer without tourists.

Good friends, clients, family members, etc... Have strong feelings about COVID-19. I don't share those "feelings" not because I'm insensitive. I don't share them because they are not backed up by numbers. The numbers are in, the facts are known, the media has hyped the living hell out of this and their shenanigans have been exposed over and over but few care as long as the narrative damages the Orange Man.

Pointing out that Maine COVID-19 deaths in 2020 are going to be fewer than Maine's 2017 flu deaths is seen as uncaring when in reality it's just the numbers and unless we do things differently our Govenor's policies will end up killing more people than COVID-19.

Pointing out city after city across the United States added thousands and thousands of hospital beds of which only a tiny percentage were ever used is true but not politically correct. Making it clear that New York never needed 10,000 let alone 40,000 ventilators isn't uncaring. It's now clear this virus for the normally healthy is just a little more deadly than the seasonal flu with one big difference... Statistically it's NOT fatal to children.

Yes we all have heard the stories of children dying and strange lung issues but the stats are in and children don't die from COVID-19 and we are now learning they are not walking around infecting people.

Let's just say common sense has once again fought it's way to the surface. Go figure that this virus is not some super bug. It's acting like a virus. It's lethality is decreasing (viral attenuation) with each generation. It's dying off as the weather warms. It's killing the old and feeble and it's now being politicized.

I know it's easy to get sucked into the Orange Man bad story line, but I'm not going to worry about that for now. He has been repeatedly accused of being the most dangerous President to our democracy in history. I argue the clear and present danger to our Democracy is not "Don the Con" but the Govenors who have taken this "emergency" to far and continue to shred the Constitution and Declaration of Independence that every service member and elected official has repeatedly sworn an oath to support and defend against all enemies both foreign and domestic.

Does the oath really mean so little? People risked everything to fight for our freedom. People gave their lives earning and preserving this freedom. We owe it to them and our children to remember this. "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Ben Franklin

Brigadier General Samuel McCobb

Maine's COVID-19 Deaths Reach 78

One would think with so few deaths (significantly below that of the flu) Maine would be one of the States open for business. Wrong! It's not about deaths. It's not about science. Honestly, I have no idea what Govenor Janet Mills is thinking.

For starters, Maine's private campgrounds (State run are still closed until June 1st) opened up "early" two days ago but they still can't accept reservations from out of state guests. The thought is Maine doesn't want our infected southern neighbors bringing the virus here.

Good idea right? Wrong, it's absolutely unconstitutional. How can a Govenor not understand this is beyond me. A state can't close it's borders, commerical enterprise, etc... to other states.

The vast majority of deaths in Maine have been and will likely continue to be elderly with pre-existing conditions. Statistically if you're younger than 50, with no pre-existingd medical conditions COVID-19 is less deadly than the flu. Why isn't this the national headline. For children (yes there have been reports of kids getting a strange respiratory disease) the death rate is as close to zero as you can get.

Unless we are worried Boston and NYC are going to ship us their nursing home populations, are death rate is not going to increase.

Govenor, acknowledge this pandemic is NO different than pandemics of the past. That the Constitution isn't suspended for something our founders lived with and that your emergency powers ran out about two months ago. Your continued violation of the Constitution and the rights of Mainers must stop now.

Publish Maine's detail death statistics, protect our elderly and provide free testing for those visiting Maine at our boarders. If you continue this path you will bring the state to its economic collapse.

“We are in the midst of one of the greatest public health crises this world has seen in more than a century," Gov. Janet Mills said. "This virus will continue to sicken people across our state; our cases will only grow, and more people will die. I say this to be direct, to be as honest with you as I can. Because saving lives will depend on us.”

PS I'm in Boston right now and frankly it's shocking. These people are walking their dogs wearing masks. Jogging wearing masks. Biking wearing masks. Going to the beach (not crowded) wearing masks. They think they are woke but the reality is they are stupid leftist lemmings who can't think for themselves.

On April 2nd Maine's stay at home order went into effect.

To Mask or Not to Mask...

On Friday, May 1st, 2020 the Govenor of Maine ordered all Mainers wear a covering in public settings where physical distancing is difficult to maintain. Why wait so long? What changed?

Masks are required in grocery stores, retail stores, health care facilities, and pharmacies. Outside you need a covering when waiting for takeout, visiting a playground, or are in a busy parking lot.

So this is my take... The virus is bad but we did what the experts told us and absolutely flattened the curve. The actual numbers are coming in and it does look like the shelter in place precautions taken AT THE ONSET of the pandemic were warranted which makes me happy. Not that roughly 120,000 people are going to die but that we didn't turn off the economy for the flu which in a bad year kills 60,000.

So here we are... The numbers are in and this is going to be about twice as bad as a bad flu year. Please remember, the vast majority of those deaths are in nursing homes where the very old have underlying conditions. Why our political leaders didn't protect them is a whole other topic that will be debated for years.

So what do we do now?

For starters, realize Bangor, Maine is not NYC. If a county has zero deaths at this point, it should be business as usual. Let businesses figure out what they need to do to be safe and make their customers safe.

Last month I brought my boat to a guy who repairs motors out in the middle of nowhere. He was wearing a mask and made me wear a mask. Why? He had an underlying condition... That's how it should work.

Giving up our rights willy-nilly, and no kidding here that's what's going on, is unacceptable. It's not crazy for some to say our founding fathers and all the men and women who have died defending our rights since didn't think the Constitution and Bill of Rights could be put on "hold" for anything, let alone a virus that is killing 1 out if 10,000 healthy people.

So there really are two camps. One that thinks this is bad but our rights can't be suspended and those who think this is bad and we must follow what our elected officials tell us and those not doing so deserve to be fined and jailed.

Regarding masks... I still think they have become a political statement but I will stop thinking and wear mine when asked.

Update: Post holds true with the exception of the number of deaths. I think we are now closing in on 680,000 for the country. However to be fair I was going by Maine's numbers which as it turns out with the exception of no kids dying the total deaths have been just over twice as great as a bad flu year.

Open Letter to Senator Troy D. Jackson on COVID-19

Dear Senator Troy Jackson,

Please understand I'm writing because Govenor Mills is not responding to calls, emails, letters or faxes. Also I know you're from potato country and I want you to know my wife and I buy Maine potatoes, regardless of price.

Sir, I can't imagine how you must be going crazy knowing that Govenor Mills is not planning to fully open the State by Memorial Day... I've been told folks can't even book rooms for any time this year. Clearly the Govenor is not listening to either party now.

One thing you can do is demand the governor publish a generic list of those who have died. It should show where people actually died (some have died in Florida, etc...), how old they were and what underlying conditions they had if any. By my calculations, ten healthy Mainers have perished thus far. Yes I said ten. All of this sucks but people die and we all deserve to know where Maine's "hotspots" are.

Bottom line... We should not be closing down Maine for the tourist season. We should be advertising that Maine is open, Maine is healthy and Maine is offering free testing for out of state folks who are coming to Summer in Maine. 

Sincerely,

Dave Beemer

Bath, Maine

1st Letter to Govenor Mills, April 15th

2nd Letter to Govenor Mills, April 29th

Note: Maine is one of five States that does not have a lieutenant governor. In Maine the president of the Senate serves that role.

President of Maine's Senate, The Honorable Troy D. Jackson

Open Letter to Governor Janet Mills #2 on COVID-19

The Honorable Janet Mills
Governor of Maine
1 State House Station
Augusta, ME  04333

Dear Governor Mills,

COVID-19 is very close to me. My dear friends and next door neighbors both had it and beat it. Sue Johnson, age 83, feeble and a cancer survivor. If Hitler couldn't kill her during the Blitz there was no way she was going to let COVID-19 take her out. Tim Johnson, age 82, has broken more bones in his body than anyone I know. He was sick as a dog but is doing fine now.

Every death is a shame but right now there are only 51 COVID-19 victims in Maine and yet the state is basically SHUT DOWN. Of these 51 deaths some actually died out of state. If you're a Maine resident and got caught in Florida during the shut down and died in Florida, etc... your death is reported as a Maine death. Furthermore, the age and comorbidity of the vast majority of the COVID-19 deaths are not being taking into consideration. I think it's safe to say that only 10% of Maine's death total are healthy people being stuck down by a new virus.

It's evident that Maine is not taking into consideration the unintended consequences of shutting down vast swaths of our economy. How many doctor appointments have been canceled? How many visits to the emergency room have been put off. How many depressed Mainer's are going to take their lives? How many bored, stressed, etc... Mainers are going to overdose? How many Mainers are going to beat their children or spouses?

Maine is "Vacation Land" and yet under your Executive Order hotels are not allowed to book any reservations. Before you continue to exercise power, that you don't possess, to violate our Constitutional rights and disrespect the thousands who died so we could live free, please look at the names of those who have died. Look at their ages. Look at what state they actually died in. Look at what else contributed to their deaths. It's pretty straight forward, this virus is not the killer you have been lead to believe.

Governor Mills, you're in a position to actually make a difference. Get someone to show you the data… It can be put on one page!  Get our state open and come up with a plan to encourage tourists to visit (I think offering free testing at the boarder to non-residents would be super smart) and let's not completely break our already fragile economy.

David Beemer
Bath, Maine
Former Naval Officer
Small Business Owner

Historically the upside down flag is a distress signal. Having our Constitutional Rights trampled by a Governor in order to save a few dozen lives puts at risk the very principles upon which thousands offered and gave their life, liberty and sacred honor to create and defend this country from enemies both foreign and domestic.

Open Letter to Govenor Janet Mills on COVID-19

The Honorable Janet Mills

Governor of Maine

1 State House Station

Augusta, ME  04333

Dear Governor Mills,

After vacationing in Maine pretty much every year since 1991, I moved to Bath in 2015 and I've been unknowingly practicing social distancing since. My background is unique in that I have a BS in physical science and a MBA. I started my investment business in 1995 and I have to confess I've made money during this crisis. Besides my wife having a PhD in linguistics and speaking seven languages, my oldest daughter is a Army Captain, Chemical Corps, taking graduate classes in California and my youngest daughter lives in Sweden.

One could say I'm uniquely positioned with the educational background, wife, kids and the time needed to really dig into what the country's response has been thus far and what we should be doing going forward.

First of all, thank you for doing what you are doing. I can't imagine the stress resulting from your decision process. Governor Mills, please error on the side of liberty and take the Constitution and the Bill of Rights into consideration with every order you sign. This crisis will pass and we don't want to look back and realized we tossed out our founding principles to save lives when the truth is our state and country has countless graves of men and women who died earning and protecting those rights.

Having our police officers stop and question folks with out of state license plates is smart on one hand but absolutely not constitutional. Telling folks from "away" they must self quarantine for 14 days or be subject to a thousand dollar fine and up to six months in jail makes a law abiding citizen like me angry. America is unique in the world in that we can travel from coast to coast, from Canada to Mexico without papers. That's something you don't give up without a fight.

A few weeks ago you shut down Fort Baldwin, Fort Popham and Popham Beach? Have you ever been to Fort Baldwin? Fort Baldwin covers six acres and has a ten car parking lot that I've never seen more than six cars visit at one time. I was at Popham Beach the weekend before you shut it down. It was as busy as I've ever seen it during the off season but even if the parking lot was full (and it wasn't) it's still incredibly easy to practice social distancing. Install a hand sanitizer station at each outdoor toilet and put up a sign reminding folks to use it and practice social distancing and we will be fine.

Governor, give us the information we need, treat us like adults and trust us to follow directions. A virus doesn't give you or anyone the right to violate our inalienable rights. Quarantining the healthy for weeks and weeks to protect the sick and elderly is not constitutional. I hear over and over that this virus is more lethal than the seasonal flu, and I believe them, but how can anyone know lethality if we don't know the number of infected? That should be your first and most important clue to guide decisions based on what we know and not what everyone keeps says over and over as fact.

Rural states, like Maine, have different needs than say Boston. It's pretty obvious that mass transit, airports, concerts, sporting events, school, etc... are vectors that spread the virus. It's also now proven this virus is NOT as deadly as we once thought, especially to healthy people, yet you haven't changed our approach with this new information. Matter of fact you seem to be doubling down. Contrary to what one might think this could be a great summer for Maine because people will want to flee the cities and Maine has the room for them to spread out and be safe. 

America must get back to work, if for nothing else than to honor those who gave their lives founding and protecting this nation.

Sincerely,

David Beemer

Bath, Maine

Former Naval Officer

Small Business Owner

Fort Popham on a busy day...

Did Sweden Get COVID-19 Right?

Sweden has lost about 1,000 citizens but as of Easter Sunday the trend is looking good. Both the number of cases and deaths are going down and I haven't heard reports of their medical system being overwhelmed.

By looking at these two charts it's pretty clear the worst is behind Sweden. When this is all over and people review the mounds of data they likely will conclude that Sweden's approach, although very different than the rest of the world, was legitimate.

The question I'm now asking myself is why this virus didn't spread aggressively throughout China? Somehow China's efforts to contain the virus internally worked, but these same efforts failed for rest of the world?

The W.H.O. announced on January 22nd that there WAS evidence of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan but more investigation was needed to understand the full extent of transmission. By this time is there serious doubt that China knew that human to human transmission was happening? How did China prevent internal spread? My guess... Yes it's a guess... They absolutely knew it was spreading person to person and at some point they determined it would be beneficial for China if the rest of the world got sick.

The only wild card that I can't figure out is how so many of the most extreme leaders in Iran got sick and died. How did they get exposed to the "L" strain? Did they visit the Wuhan bio-warfare lab looking to buy a weapon of mass destruction and inadvertently get exposed? Stranger things have happened.

It looks like Sweden, Italy, France, UK, Spain, US, etc... are all peaking with world death totals no where near "expert" projections generated just 10 days ago. Not only did computer modeling fail, the models failed on a level that is statistical impossible!

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Maine's Governor Closed Fort Baldwin

I live in Maine and our Governor closed ten areas, including Fort Baldwin due to the Coronavirus. Of the ten Fort Baldwin is rarely busy because it's virtually unknown and the parking lot can handle at most 10 cars, although I've never seen more than a handful.

My point... Our leaders are treating us like children. That and the Constitution isn't something to be taken lightly and closing anything in a state of fewer than a million people (it's still winter here and we are getting snow tomorrow) who's citizens typically practice social distancing nine months of every year, is suspect.

Why is Janet Mills doing this?

At best it's well intended, but I remind everyone that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. I believe this is just the start. Right now many states are violating the first amendment and various SCOTUS rulings regarding restrictions of movement.  How we the people respond will determine what happens next.

The government absolutely has the right and responsibility to quarantine the ill but telling healthy Americans they can't leave their homes unless they are getting food, taking care of someone or going to a job the government seems essential is nuts expecially in non-urban ureas.

Closing Fort Baldwin's 10 car parking lot is an example of government overreacting and if we don't push back what's next?