Michael Mann's "Hockey Stick"

Few things spin me up more regarding global warming/climate change than government funded scientists not making their data, methodologies and in some cases the computer programs used to reduce data or model their data public.

Mr. Mann, while on the payroll of the State of Virginia, created the now famous hockey stick graph that Al Gore continues to use to show audiences that the warming in the last 100 years is unprecedented and rapidly increasing.

However upon the conclusion of a six year lawsuit Mr. Mann still failed to produce his data, methodology and computer code as direct by the Canadian Supreme Court.

Could the graph that started this debate be at least partially bogus?

Since 1900 the Earth has warmed, sea levels have risen and man is taking the blame because this hasn't happened before at anything like this rate... or so the narrative goes.

But it has if you actually look at the publicly available data going back as recently as the 12th century you would know this isn't true. Furthermore, if you're a paleo climatologist you know things such as 200 year droughts in the Midwest have happened in the past and will happen again.

Why can't the left focus on clean air, water and land? This would help a billion people move from huts with no electricity, running water and indoor plumbing into homes that do.

Michael Mann needs to come clean and produce his data. Al Gore needs to stop using the hockey stick that even professor Mann has changed and don't get me started about the 420 thousand year ice core data that shows CO2 lags temperature increases by hundreds of years.

Our planet has issues and man absolutly can F@&$ it up. However, preventing a billion people from entering the 20th let alone the 21st century is wrong and frankly just bad for the planet.

Glitchy Military Software

A glitchy software upgrade to the ALIS ground support system has grounded the Marine Corps F-35B squadron based in Yuma, Arizona. An entire squadron is grounded after a software update? Couldn't someone extrapolate this to mean it's possible to hack military software?

I honesty doubt it but I do know in the 90's missile shooters would have to coordinate going off line with surrounding ships for a total reboot of their software daily and sometimes as needed. During that time the ship was completely vulnerable to air attack.

Buggy software is nothing new and clearly there are vulnerabilities that could be exploited in the right circumstances. It's time for the US government to rethink its recruitment process of discriminating against hiring hackers and software engineers who for example have crazy tattoos or used drugs in the past.

The Russians may no longer have a Navy, Air Force or Army that can compete with United States. However, they have some of the world's best computer programmers and hackers.

It's not a coincidence that China and Russia have the best computer programmers in the world and the US comes in at something like 10th. It's high time that the US gets into the game because the best equipment in the world is just scrap metal if the software crashes.

Bill Clinton & The Blue Dress

When Virginia's former Governor Bob McDonnell's legal case went to the jury I blogged what I thought the outcome would be and was shocked by the jury's verdict. However, I stuck by my logic and as it turned out I was later proved correct by SCOTUS in a rare unanimous overturning of a lower courts decision.

During the last few months it's become clear to me the Democrats have formulated a plan of maximum resistance to everything Trump. From the initial attempts to corrupt the Electoral College, to the false narrative that Trump lost the election by nearly 3,000,000 votes. I believe the Neil Gorsuch vote was the demarcation from politics as usual, albeit bitter and divided, to Democrats and the "mainstream media" realizing the only card they have left to play is full on resistance by any means.

This effort has reached critical mass as Hillary Clinton takes the helm and leads the push back against everything Trump by helping to fund and organize the "Resistance". 

As Trump rolls back regulations, signs executive orders and Congress gears up to appeal the ACA, reform the tax code and roll back parts of of Dodd Frank, which even Hillary admitted was fundamentally flawed, it's clear this "Resistance" isn't politics as usual. 

Do anything, say anything, repeat lies over and over until they are true, fake news, leak information and basically do what ever you can to derail anything and everything Republican is the playbook.

This is NOT politics as usual. This is something new. Something fundamentally at odds with the precept that elections have consequence and a fundamental disconnect with reality... the Republican's control the House, the Senate, the Presidency and the governor’s mansion or the state legislative chamber in 44 states.

While the "Left" and the new world order tries to come to grip with their feelings the conservative right has locked up the country. If the Democrats continue this strategy of resistance without compromise there is no doubt the midterm elections will further punish the Democrats specifically in the Senate.

Knowing the Democrats will absolutely continue playing the only card they have - Total Resistance - I urge Congress and the President to press on with their legislative agenda.

NOAA Continues to Blow off Congress

In the summer of 2015, NOAA scientists published the Karl study, which retroactively altered historical climate change data and resulted in the elimination of a well-known climate phenomenon known as the “climate change hiatus.”  The hiatus was a period between 1998 and 2013 during which the rate of global temperature growth slowed.  This fact has always been a thorn in the side of climate change alarmists, as it became difficult to disprove the slowdown in warming.

The Karl study refuted the hiatus and rewrote climate change history to claim that warming had in fact been occurring.  The committee heard from scientists who raised concerns about the study’s methodologies, readiness, and politicization.  In response, the committee conducted oversight and sent NOAA inquiries to investigate the circumstances surrounding the Karl study.

Over the course of the committee’s oversight, NOAA refused to comply with the inquiries, baselessly arguing that Congress is not authorized to request communications from federal scientists.  This culminated in the issuance of a congressional subpoena, with which NOAA also failed to comply.

During the course of the investigation, the committee heard from whistle-blowers who confirmed that, among other flaws in the study, it was rushed for publication to support President Obama’s climate change agenda. (Congressional Committee on Science, Space & Technology)

Complete timeline of the Science Committee’s oversight of NOAA’s 2015 climate change study.

I honestly have no skin in the game to prove or disprove ocean temperatures paused or not. What does concern me is that NOAA thinks it doesn't have to respond to Congressional inquires or even subpoena's.  Government scientist saying their emails are not part of the official record is a clear indicator scientists have agendas other than the pursuit of the truth.

A more disturbing trend than data not being shared is results, papers, etc... being published and taken as fact without being duplicated. Peer review is one thing, having your experiment or analysis being successfully repeated by others is fundamental to the scientific method.

Freedom of Conservative Speech

Recent protests and in some cases riots by left wing extremists and "Black Lives Matter" protesters that infringe on the free speech of others should not be tolerated let alone seemingly encouraged by institutions of higher learning.

Blocking people from attending planned events to the extent the police say it's dangerous for people to attend inhibits free speech.

Hold up signs. Yell as people enter. Attend and ask questions. Maybe even disrupt the speaker and be peacefully escorted out of the event. These are all constitutionally protected forms of free speech.

Preventing the event from happening by blocking the doors or rioting is NOT protected by the the constitution and frankly those that do this should be prosecuted.

Paul R. Ehrlich - So Exceptionally Wrong

During the turmoil of the 1960's if you wanted to make your point you had to ramp it up and if possible scare people. In 1962 Rachel Carson did this with "Silent Spring" and in 1968 Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich scared the living shit out of millions professing the end of humanity with "The Population Bomb" suggesting population controls ranging from rewarding couples not to have children to forced sterilization.

The truth, the facts, the reality is that developed countries population growth has slowed to a crawl if not gone negative and the developing world's circumstances have changed to an extent parents don't have to have double-digit children to cultivate and harvest crops or ensure the survival of their family name.

Without immigration, many developed countries show negative population growth and my wife is fond of pointing out that the Japanese, basically a closed immigration free society, would rather play video games than F%#k. Japan may be the poster child but they are far from the only country witnessing population​ collapse. As of March 2017 another 19 countries project negative population growth which has been welcomed by some but for those who understand demographics, including many governments, this is truly scary.

Only in academia could a man with ideas and predictions so absolutely wrong, continue to be embraced by the elite and barely hint at any admission of being wrong or guilty of things done because of his research.  Being "wrong" has a price and nothing will bring back millions of people that were never conceived from government rules and pressure to countless of forced sterilizations.

Not only are Paul Ehrlich's ideas still being taught in one of our greatest state sponsored universities, he still serves as the President, Center for Conservation Biology, Professor of Population Studies in a building that no doubt will one day be named after him. Only in America do we continue to reward exceptional incompetence and fail to see the facts for what they are and continue to make political and social decisions based on flawed science.

Department of Labor Fiduciary Rule

The Office of Regulations and Interpretations

Employee Benefit Security Administration

U.S. Department of Labor (Room N-5655)

200 Constitution Avenue, N.W.

Washington, DC 20210

March 13th, 2017

Dear Sir,

I am writing to voice my support of scrapping the proposed “fiduciary rule” and that you consider a new rule to prohibit the use of annuities to actively fund 401k, 403b, SIMLE IRA, SEPS, deferred compensation, IRA, Roth IRAs, etc…

For nearly 24 years I’ve been helping middle class consumers invest for retirement and I can honestly say I’ve never once opened a contributory retirement account using an annuity. In my opinion the use of annuities for contributory retirement accounts is currently the biggest scam in our industry.  Matter of fact, it’s nearly impossible to imagine any ethical person doing this, yet it’s done every day. Huge tax sheltered 401k, 403b plans, etc… are being funded with annuities which are also tax sheltered.

It's unbelievable that insurance companies continue to get away with this.  How did your predecessors rationalize prohibiting commission mutual funds for retirement accounts while giving the green light to annuities?  The commissions on mutual funds are pretty much the same now, their costs are disclosed on the statements and break points significantly reduce what the consumer pays while annuities hide what they charge and without breakpoints overcharge the consumer by billions not including the huge costs associated with the unneeded double tax shelter.

All things being equal, it’s clear that low cost, no-load mutual funds, index funds and ETFs outperform commission mutual funds day in and day out, but things are NOT equal and study after study by companies like DALBAR and my years of observation indicate that the average investor doesn’t see these returns due to bad timing of the market, not getting an early start or just making basic mistakes.

Like most attempts to regulate morality the “fiduciary rule” will certainly fail.  Good advisers don’t screw their clients because of rules and regulations prevent them. They do what’s right because they are honest. Nothing will prevent unscrupulous insurance agents and advisers from finding loop holes to make higher profits at the expense of the uneducated consumer.

Instead of prohibiting commissioned mutual funds it would be in the best interests of consumers if the DOL stepped up and prohibited the abusive practice of selling annuities to fund contributory retirement accounts.

Sincerely,

David Beemer
Bath, Maine

PS Email sent to the DOL during the rules mandatory proposed rule response time.

*** Update ***

Entire rule vacated by the Federal Court 5th Circuit of Appeals - Vacated normally means it's dead but my thinking is Broker Dealers have spent too much time and resources into the proposed rules to change course which is insane. I ponder the thought of who at the DOL thought they had the authority to superseded laws pass by congress and regulate the securities industry? So it's dead right? Hell no! Government regulations don't die they just come back to life as something else... very much like Zombies.

Maybe CO2 is causing the Earth to Warm but NOT directly?

CO2 is warming the planet but maybe just NOT the way we have been told.  Everyone knows (97% of scientists) global warming is the result of the 1 in 10,000 atmospheric increase in CO2 which is basically nothing compared to the atmosphere on whole.  Most scientists would agree this increase in CO2 is just a tiny player in total green house gases especially when compared to water vapor.

NASA and even the recent IPCC report says water vapor is by far the biggest player in keeping the planet warm which lines up with common sense. Deserts being scorching hot during the day and wicked cold at night has a lot to do with the amount of water vapor in the air and don't get me started regarding clouds. As far as over all temperature nothing drives this more than humidity and humidity is directly linked to vegetation. So the real question is... if water vapor makes up 95% of all green house gasses why is it barely mentioned as a green house gas?

Because unlike carbon it's hard to vilify water!

Waging a ware against water vapor doesn't clean up the environment!

So basically I'm saying the man made increase in CO2, compared to the atmosphere on whole, is NOT directly responsible for global warming that we have seen for about the last 150 years. Keep in mind, contrary to what Al Gore would have you to believe, the 400,000 year ice core data (now 800,000 years) shows the increase in CO2 thought to have caused the temperature increase actually lags said increase by an average of 800 years!

So what's going on?

I contend such a small overall increase in atmospheric CO2 is not capable of "measurable" change in our climate. Even as a powerful green house gas, man's total contribution to the green house effect about one quarter of one percent.

So what's going on?

The 100 ppm increase in CO2 since 1900 is nothing as far as green house gasses go but it's a 33% increase in a gas that plants are starving for!

This recent increase in CO2 has resulted in a note worthy increase in plant food and resulting growth world wide. This greening of the planet is noticeable from space and NASA has successfully documented this world wide.

All of this is quantifiable and there is no doubt that a roughly 20-30% increase in world wide plant productivity is having an measurable impact on water vapor, weather weather patterns and eventually climate

How ironic would it be if it turns out that environmentalists saving the rain forest, not burning coal is causing the melting of glaciers, shifting weather patterns and eventually the drowning of our low lying coastal populations.

PS This idea hit me as I was dreaming about Mars and a recent study that showed it's likely possible to grow potatoes there.

NASA Confirms Water Vapor Major Player in Climate Change?

Really, NASA confirms? What's shocking is thinking water vapor's role needed confirmation!

What is the fuss all about?  Mathematically man's contribution to global green house gases adds up to roughly a quarter of 1% of the total green house effect or radiative forcing.

Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O), CFC's, etc... are the only gases we talk about when discussing green house gases. Crazy when it's widely known that water vapor is the seven ton elephant in the room representing roughly 95% of all green house gasses.

Why is water "vapour" only mentioned in passing in the last IPCC report?  Maybe because it would be implausible to suggest water "vapour" is bad?  If you search all 222 pages of Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Basis - Summery for Policy Makers "water vapour" is mentioned 85 times, of which 83 of those it's not being talked about as a green house gas.

"As the largest contributor to the natural greenhouse effect, water vapour plays an essential role in the Earth’s climate." (page 153)  Largest contributor? The IPCC says it's the largest contributor but it's only mentioned twice as a green house gas?

CO2 on the other hand is mentioned 452 times not once mentioning increased CO2 is making our planet greener. Why is something mentioned 452 times when the total increase since 1900 is 1 part in 10,000?

To put this in perspective we would need a 275% increase in today's levels of CO2 just to reach the levels commercial greenhouses artificially create (by burning propane and natural gas) to increase plant growth in some cases by as much as 50%. That's right commercial green houses buy bulk CO2 or burn natural gas to boost daytime CO2 levels. In some areas it's gotten so bad that breweries can't get the CO2 they need because pot growers have used up the local supply.

"97% of all scientists" -  I've researched this percentage and blogged about where this quote comes from and regardless of what some think just saying it over and over doesn't make it true. Hell based on the main assumption I too would be included in the 97%. However, as of today I'm more convinced than ever that the 33% increase in CO2 (300 to 400 ppm) isn't as bad as we have been lead to believe. Yes man is contributing to warming but we are not by any measure the primary driver but unlike those on the far left and right I'll keep an open mind and hope that science continues to search for the truth.

Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change

“Global warming” is not a global crisis

Global Warming aka Climate Change Extremes

I almost forgot to apply one of my favorite understanding techniques to Global Warming aka Climate Change... Extremes:

What if we could some how stop putting CO2 into the air and removed every bit we have added in the last 116 years would temperatures and sea levels return to what they were in 1800?

Conversely, what would happen if some how we could return to the atmosphere all the the CO2 that was sequestered in coal and oil? Would the predictions of a world meltdown be correct?

Before the Carboniferous Period (about 359 to 299 million years ago) this CO2 was in the atmosphere and the fossil record shows the planet wasn't a run away green house like that of Venus but humid, lush and green. There were even periods of glaciation during this time and vast polar ice caps. How is that possible?

As I've stated in past posts, I'm a global warming aka climate change agnostic who is passionate about clean air, water and land and I'm very concerned that many scientists, politicians, environmentalists and the media are focused on the 1 in 10,000 atmospheric CO2 increase and not pollution that adversely impacts millions of lives.

Furthermore, the alarmist clearly don't understand that if we burned all the worlds coal the atmosphere would return to what it was 359 million years ago which was obviously very livable and if the fossil record is to be believed very lush, green and productive.

It's interesting to note that during the last half of the Carboniferous Period significant ice cap formations covered the poles even though atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) were approximately 1500 ppm.