Lycoming Engine Cold Weather Pre-Heat

Being from Minnesota I've done my fair share of really cold, snow crunching (think below zero) winter flying and I've learned that preheating your engine makes life much easier.

It's that time of year again and many pilots will consider using preheat when the temp drops below freezing... This has always seemed odd to me so I did a little research.

Turns out some Lycoming models do need preheat below 20 degrees but for the vast majority of Lycoming engines the critical outside temp that requires preheat is 10 degrees not 32 degrees. My vote is we only preheat when temps are below 20 degrees.

In my research I came across a few good points to remember during your cold weather preflight and I've included the link if you're interested in brushing up on Lycoming cold weather ops.

Lycoming Cold Weather Opps

"If flight is planned for bad weather, the preflight inspection should include observation of the relief opening in the engine breather tube so that any freezing of moisture at the end of the breather will not result in a loss of engine oil. 

Once on board the aircraft, check the fuel-selector valve for freedom of movement. It may be frozen fast (this has happened), and you’d better find out while still on the ground.

Most of the time, we think of starting any engine as a very simple process. Just engage the starter, and listen for the engine to start purring. Unfortunately, when the weather turns cold, it is not always that simple. When dealing with a reciprocating aircraft engine, it may be essential to get a start on the first try in order to avoid icing over the spark plugs and making an immediate start impossible. In order to achieve a start on the first try, there are a number of factors to be considered. Those factors will be discussed in the following paragraphs."

Just tossing this out to the universe.

PS Did you know a fully charged battery will not freeze until -76 degrees Fahrenheit but a fully discharged battery will become a block of ice at 32 degrees?

Fake News - Trump Wins?

It was 1983 and my high school yearbook was being finished. My best friend was our class president and valedictorian (later graduated top Engineer of his class at Notre Dame) but for some reason the yearbook committee goofed and listed me as class president. For the record I wasn't my class president I was student body president and worked with the entire student council.

So clearly anyone researching my life would concluded my bio was wrong and that I had exaggerated my past. Let me be clear (drink) I really had fun being involved with my high school and class and we did some pretty neat things. Being asked to address my graduating class as Student Body President (I wasn't my class president) was one of the highlights of my life... A highlight that few of my classmates even remember which is something that humbles me to this day.

Today Americans by the millions will wait in line to vote even after roughly 90,000,000 Americans have already voted. I support our absentee voting system but massive early voting is not what our founding fathers wanted.

Let me be clear (drink) I absolutely believe and have placed bets that Trump will win and more importantly drive the nail in the coffin of our fake news society. If Trump wins how can anyone again believe polls or the press?

The press emphatically argues the following states are in play:

Arizona, Texas, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Northern Maine. What happens when Trump wins all of these States? What if most are not even close?

The close states will be Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. During this election cycle my ultimate BS meter will peg out if Trump actually wins Minnesota or Nevada.

So if Trump looses I'm going to scratch my head and wish Biden all my best. If he wins I'm going to brace for days, if not weeks of unrest and another four years of fake news. So let me be clear (drink) no matter what happens today Trump looses and so do we... Thank you fake news!

Voter Suppression is Real...

In 2018 Stacy Abrams lost her bid to become Georgia's Govenor by roughy 55,000 votes with the largest black turnout in the states history. The results, while close were not contested and yet this election is used as a prime example of voter suppression?

How can any rational person conclude the Georgia Govenors race was stolen via voter suppresssion? I have a theory. When the Left accuses conservatives of doing something in reality they are the ones doing exactly what they accuse.

This is a well-known psychological phenomenon known as projection. "Projection refers to unconsciously taking unwanted emotions or traits you don't like about yourself and attributing them to someone else. A common example is a cheating spouse who suspects their partner is being unfaithful."

I rarely do this but I'm going to toss out something I can't prove other than with common sense. As of late, all polls show Joe Biden with an ever growing lead over President Trump. It looks really bad or good depending on which side of the fence you sit. Now ask yourself have polls been wrong in the past?

Of course they have. That's a big duh. Now ask yourself when was the last time they were wrong in favor of Republicans?

It's likely the last wrong poll that favored the Republicans was Dewey's loss to Eisenhower. So what do polls have to do with voter suppression?

Polls impact fundraising. Low polling numbers equal fewer dollars, voter enthusiasm, etc... High polling numbers helps rally supporters of candidates who may not deserve support.

Push polls have been used to manipulate elections for decades and in many cases they are part of the dirty politics that both sides use.

So the next time you see poll data remember to ask yourself when was the last time the polls got a national election wrong in favor of the Republicans? Go Dewey!

Black Lives Matter (BLM)

The BLM website and their stated goals didn't make sense when I wrote this but it's clear their mission is not about saving black lives. If it was, then handguns and black on black shootings would be the focus.

SRA (Stop Resisting Arrest) is what we should be teaching all of our children. This is what we should drill into our young black men if we really cared about blacks dying at the hands of police. Regardless of how you look at it Statistically cops killing blacks is NOT an issue while resisting arrest absolutely is the problem and even then the narrative that white cops are killing black men is just not correct. Not even a little bit correct.

In a country of 330,000,000 million the number of black men killed by white cops, while NOT resisting arrest is as close to zero as you can statistically get. Don't believe me? The data is available. The reality is most cops never "pull" their weapon let alone discharge it and cops don't get into their "shop" and go look for trouble.

Before you march. Before your pick up a brick and toss it at a plate glass window. Before you loot neighborhood businesses. Before you set them on fire. Before you toss a Molotov cocktail at a police cruiser or worse... Before you pull down the statues of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Ulysses S. Grant, Col. Hans Christian Heg, etc, etc... Spend 30 minutes looking up the data.

Making excuses for bad actors, those high on drugs, drunk, hoodlums that feel they must resist arrest or saying blacks have a reason to fear the men and women in blue is literally killing our fellow Americans of all colors but mostly the efforts to save black lives ends up getting more black men arrested, injured and killed. It's so predictable that it's sad.

Cops rarely kill anyone. The chance of being killed while cooperating with the police is as close to zero as you can get in a country as large as the United States. Take a moment to Google and read this PDF: "Department of Justice use of force by police overview of national and local data"

PS If you happen to get beat up by the police and you were not resisting arrest there is a good chance you could sue and win a lot of cash for you and your family but it's really hard to sue if the cop's body camera shows you beating their ass.

The Ocean is Rising... Not So Fast

I absolutely love Maine's coastline. If you haven't had a chance to spend time in Maine you have missed out on one of the wonders of the planet. Maine's coast is special for many reasons. From rock formations out west that date back 1.5 billion years to recent glacial events of the last 12-14 thousand years that pushed rocks weighing tons miles rounding them off into easily recognized glacial erratics... Maine's coast is exceptional.

A few years ago I blogged about a University of Maine study conducted for the Maine geological survey that concluded from 1930 to 1992 sea level rise in Portland Maine averaged about 2.2 mm per year.

Almost 30 years after that study it's clear the studies predictions are off... Way off. The study concluded the actual increase was 2.2 mm per year. It also showed a low EPA estimate of 4.2 mm and a high of 29 mm per year.

The same tide gage today doesn't show the expected increase in level or the increase in rate. From 1912 to 2018 the average increase seemingly slowed to 1.88 mm per year.

Since the data goes back to 1900 the only reason for using 1930 and 1912 as your starting point is to find the maximum increase by cherry picking data. The problem with cherry picking data is eventually the data will simply speak for it's self.

The papers author's were: Joseph Kelly, Steven M. Dickson and Daniel Belknap.

National Retail Sales Tax (NRST) Experiment

Could the federal government conduct an income tax experiment?

States without a state income tax (Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming) are arguably out preforming income taxed states so why not eliminate their federal income tax as well and see what happens?

The lost federal revenue could be replaced by a national sales tax piggy backed on the state sales tax.

But that would be regressive!

Yep, but the National Retail Sales Tax (NRST) experiment in conjunction with a "basic income" rebate would eliminate the NRST's regressivity.

If a seven states experiment is a bridge too far how about picking just one state? I would suggest Washington.

Who's Threatening the Constitution

In the U.S. the Spanish Flu infected about a quarter of the population of 105 million and killed between 500,000 to 850,000. It strangly targeted the young as well as the elderly.

When COVID-19 deaths started in the United States I fully supported the initial two week shelter in place because we didn't know if this virus was going to be the next Spanish Flu and kill millions of Americans.

We saw it slam Italy and thought oh crap that could happen here. We are just now coming up with scientific theories of why "Italy" didn't happen in the U.S. ranging from Italy got the full strength "L" strain to the adverse impact of Italy's Lombardy region having some of the worst air quality in Europe resulting in compromised lungs which COVID-19 could easily attack.

However, when it became abundantly clear the death rate was at least a factor of ten lower for the United States and the bulk of victims were elderly WITH pre-existing conditions and children seemed to be immune, I raised the BS flag.

April 15th was my turning point. I began reaching out to Governor Mills in every way I could as the numbers kept coming in not at all inline with predictions. Yet our Govenor barely changed anything.

Her efforts to close down Maine and Maine businesses where not helpful and absolutely unconstitutional. You can't tell Maine business not to take reservations from non-residents.

To show case she's playing politics, our Govenor ordered the entire state to start wearing face masks as of May 1st? If masked are necessary why would you wait so long? Mask wearing in Maine became just another form of virtue signaling as our unemployment rate climbed and business began to worry how they could survive the Summer without tourists.

Good friends, clients, family members, etc... Have strong feelings about COVID-19. I don't share those "feelings" not because I'm insensitive. I don't share them because they are not backed up by numbers. The numbers are in, the facts are known, the media has hyped the living hell out of this and their shenanigans have been exposed over and over but few care as long as the narrative damages the Orange Man.

Pointing out that Maine COVID-19 deaths in 2020 are going to be fewer than Maine's 2017 flu deaths is seen as uncaring when in reality it's just the numbers and unless we do things differently our Govenor's policies will end up killing more people than COVID-19.

Pointing out city after city across the United States added thousands and thousands of hospital beds of which only a tiny percentage were ever used is true but not politically correct. Making it clear that New York never needed 10,000 let alone 40,000 ventilators isn't uncaring. It's now clear this virus for the normally healthy is just a little more deadly than the seasonal flu with one big difference... Statistically it's NOT fatal to children.

Yes we all have heard the stories of children dying and strange lung issues but the stats are in and children don't die from COVID-19 and we are now learning they are not walking around infecting people.

Let's just say common sense has once again fought it's way to the surface. Go figure that this virus is not some super bug. It's acting like a virus. It's lethality is decreasing (viral attenuation) with each generation. It's dying off as the weather warms. It's killing the old and feeble and it's now being politicized.

I know it's easy to get sucked into the Orange Man bad story line, but I'm not going to worry about that for now. He has been repeatedly accused of being the most dangerous President to our democracy in history. I argue the clear and present danger to our Democracy is not "Don the Con" but the Govenors who have taken this "emergency" to far and continue to shred the Constitution and Declaration of Independence that every service member and elected official has repeatedly sworn an oath to support and defend against all enemies both foreign and domestic.

Does the oath really mean so little? People risked everything to fight for our freedom. People gave their lives earning and preserving this freedom. We owe it to them and our children to remember this. "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Ben Franklin

Brigadier General Samuel McCobb

Maine's COVID-19 Deaths Reach 78

One would think with so few deaths (significantly below that of the flu) Maine would be one of the States open for business. Wrong! It's not about deaths. It's not about science. Honestly, I have no idea what Govenor Janet Mills is thinking.

For starters, Maine's private campgrounds (State run are still closed until June 1st) opened up "early" two days ago but they still can't accept reservations from out of state guests. The thought is Maine doesn't want our infected southern neighbors bringing the virus here.

Good idea right? Wrong, it's absolutely unconstitutional. How can a Govenor not understand this is beyond me. A state can't close it's borders, commerical enterprise, etc... to other states.

The vast majority of deaths in Maine have been and will likely continue to be elderly with pre-existing conditions. Statistically if you're younger than 50, with no pre-existingd medical conditions COVID-19 is less deadly than the flu. Why isn't this the national headline. For children (yes there have been reports of kids getting a strange respiratory disease) the death rate is as close to zero as you can get.

Unless we are worried Boston and NYC are going to ship us their nursing home populations, are death rate is not going to increase.

Govenor, acknowledge this pandemic is NO different than pandemics of the past. That the Constitution isn't suspended for something our founders lived with and that your emergency powers ran out about two months ago. Your continued violation of the Constitution and the rights of Mainers must stop now.

Publish Maine's detail death statistics, protect our elderly and provide free testing for those visiting Maine at our boarders. If you continue this path you will bring the state to its economic collapse.

“We are in the midst of one of the greatest public health crises this world has seen in more than a century," Gov. Janet Mills said. "This virus will continue to sicken people across our state; our cases will only grow, and more people will die. I say this to be direct, to be as honest with you as I can. Because saving lives will depend on us.”

PS I'm in Boston right now and frankly it's shocking. These people are walking their dogs wearing masks. Jogging wearing masks. Biking wearing masks. Going to the beach (not crowded) wearing masks. They think they are woke but the reality is they are stupid leftist lemmings who can't think for themselves.

On April 2nd Maine's stay at home order went into effect.

To Mask or Not to Mask...

On Friday, May 1st, 2020 the Govenor of Maine ordered all Mainers wear a covering in public settings where physical distancing is difficult to maintain. Why wait so long? What changed?

Masks are required in grocery stores, retail stores, health care facilities, and pharmacies. Outside you need a covering when waiting for takeout, visiting a playground, or are in a busy parking lot.

So this is my take... The virus is bad but we did what the experts told us and absolutely flattened the curve. The actual numbers are coming in and it does look like the shelter in place precautions taken AT THE ONSET of the pandemic were warranted which makes me happy. Not that roughly 120,000 people are going to die but that we didn't turn off the economy for the flu which in a bad year kills 60,000.

So here we are... The numbers are in and this is going to be about twice as bad as a bad flu year. Please remember, the vast majority of those deaths are in nursing homes where the very old have underlying conditions. Why our political leaders didn't protect them is a whole other topic that will be debated for years.

So what do we do now?

For starters, realize Bangor, Maine is not NYC. If a county has zero deaths at this point, it should be business as usual. Let businesses figure out what they need to do to be safe and make their customers safe.

Last month I brought my boat to a guy who repairs motors out in the middle of nowhere. He was wearing a mask and made me wear a mask. Why? He had an underlying condition... That's how it should work.

Giving up our rights willy-nilly, and no kidding here that's what's going on, is unacceptable. It's not crazy for some to say our founding fathers and all the men and women who have died defending our rights since didn't think the Constitution and Bill of Rights could be put on "hold" for anything, let alone a virus that is killing 1 out if 10,000 healthy people.

So there really are two camps. One that thinks this is bad but our rights can't be suspended and those who think this is bad and we must follow what our elected officials tell us and those not doing so deserve to be fined and jailed.

Regarding masks... I still think they have become a political statement but I will stop thinking and wear mine when asked.

Update: Post holds true with the exception of the number of deaths. I think we are now closing in on 680,000 for the country. However to be fair I was going by Maine's numbers which as it turns out with the exception of no kids dying the total deaths have been just over twice as great as a bad flu year.

Open Letter to Senator Troy D. Jackson on COVID-19

Dear Senator Troy Jackson,

Please understand I'm writing because Govenor Mills is not responding to calls, emails, letters or faxes. Also I know you're from potato country and I want you to know my wife and I buy Maine potatoes, regardless of price.

Sir, I can't imagine how you must be going crazy knowing that Govenor Mills is not planning to fully open the State by Memorial Day... I've been told folks can't even book rooms for any time this year. Clearly the Govenor is not listening to either party now.

One thing you can do is demand the governor publish a generic list of those who have died. It should show where people actually died (some have died in Florida, etc...), how old they were and what underlying conditions they had if any. By my calculations, ten healthy Mainers have perished thus far. Yes I said ten. All of this sucks but people die and we all deserve to know where Maine's "hotspots" are.

Bottom line... We should not be closing down Maine for the tourist season. We should be advertising that Maine is open, Maine is healthy and Maine is offering free testing for out of state folks who are coming to Summer in Maine. 

Sincerely,

Dave Beemer

Bath, Maine

1st Letter to Govenor Mills, April 15th

2nd Letter to Govenor Mills, April 29th

Note: Maine is one of five States that does not have a lieutenant governor. In Maine the president of the Senate serves that role.

President of Maine's Senate, The Honorable Troy D. Jackson

Open Letter to Governor Janet Mills #2 on COVID-19

The Honorable Janet Mills
Governor of Maine
1 State House Station
Augusta, ME  04333

Dear Governor Mills,

COVID-19 is very close to me. My dear friends and next door neighbors both had it and beat it. Sue Johnson, age 83, feeble and a cancer survivor. If Hitler couldn't kill her during the Blitz there was no way she was going to let COVID-19 take her out. Tim Johnson, age 82, has broken more bones in his body than anyone I know. He was sick as a dog but is doing fine now.

Every death is a shame but right now there are only 51 COVID-19 victims in Maine and yet the state is basically SHUT DOWN. Of these 51 deaths some actually died out of state. If you're a Maine resident and got caught in Florida during the shut down and died in Florida, etc... your death is reported as a Maine death. Furthermore, the age and comorbidity of the vast majority of the COVID-19 deaths are not being taking into consideration. I think it's safe to say that only 10% of Maine's death total are healthy people being stuck down by a new virus.

It's evident that Maine is not taking into consideration the unintended consequences of shutting down vast swaths of our economy. How many doctor appointments have been canceled? How many visits to the emergency room have been put off. How many depressed Mainer's are going to take their lives? How many bored, stressed, etc... Mainers are going to overdose? How many Mainers are going to beat their children or spouses?

Maine is "Vacation Land" and yet under your Executive Order hotels are not allowed to book any reservations. Before you continue to exercise power, that you don't possess, to violate our Constitutional rights and disrespect the thousands who died so we could live free, please look at the names of those who have died. Look at their ages. Look at what state they actually died in. Look at what else contributed to their deaths. It's pretty straight forward, this virus is not the killer you have been lead to believe.

Governor Mills, you're in a position to actually make a difference. Get someone to show you the data… It can be put on one page!  Get our state open and come up with a plan to encourage tourists to visit (I think offering free testing at the boarder to non-residents would be super smart) and let's not completely break our already fragile economy.

David Beemer
Bath, Maine
Former Naval Officer
Small Business Owner

Historically the upside down flag is a distress signal. Having our Constitutional Rights trampled by a Governor in order to save a few dozen lives puts at risk the very principles upon which thousands offered and gave their life, liberty and sacred honor to create and defend this country from enemies both foreign and domestic.

Open Letter to Govenor Janet Mills on COVID-19

The Honorable Janet Mills

Governor of Maine

1 State House Station

Augusta, ME  04333

Dear Governor Mills,

After vacationing in Maine pretty much every year since 1991, I moved to Bath in 2015 and I've been unknowingly practicing social distancing since. My background is unique in that I have a BS in physical science and a MBA. I started my investment business in 1995 and I have to confess I've made money during this crisis. Besides my wife having a PhD in linguistics and speaking seven languages, my oldest daughter is a Army Captain, Chemical Corps, taking graduate classes in California and my youngest daughter lives in Sweden.

One could say I'm uniquely positioned with the educational background, wife, kids and the time needed to really dig into what the country's response has been thus far and what we should be doing going forward.

First of all, thank you for doing what you are doing. I can't imagine the stress resulting from your decision process. Governor Mills, please error on the side of liberty and take the Constitution and the Bill of Rights into consideration with every order you sign. This crisis will pass and we don't want to look back and realized we tossed out our founding principles to save lives when the truth is our state and country has countless graves of men and women who died earning and protecting those rights.

Having our police officers stop and question folks with out of state license plates is smart on one hand but absolutely not constitutional. Telling folks from "away" they must self quarantine for 14 days or be subject to a thousand dollar fine and up to six months in jail makes a law abiding citizen like me angry. America is unique in the world in that we can travel from coast to coast, from Canada to Mexico without papers. That's something you don't give up without a fight.

A few weeks ago you shut down Fort Baldwin, Fort Popham and Popham Beach? Have you ever been to Fort Baldwin? Fort Baldwin covers six acres and has a ten car parking lot that I've never seen more than six cars visit at one time. I was at Popham Beach the weekend before you shut it down. It was as busy as I've ever seen it during the off season but even if the parking lot was full (and it wasn't) it's still incredibly easy to practice social distancing. Install a hand sanitizer station at each outdoor toilet and put up a sign reminding folks to use it and practice social distancing and we will be fine.

Governor, give us the information we need, treat us like adults and trust us to follow directions. A virus doesn't give you or anyone the right to violate our inalienable rights. Quarantining the healthy for weeks and weeks to protect the sick and elderly is not constitutional. I hear over and over that this virus is more lethal than the seasonal flu, and I believe them, but how can anyone know lethality if we don't know the number of infected? That should be your first and most important clue to guide decisions based on what we know and not what everyone keeps says over and over as fact.

Rural states, like Maine, have different needs than say Boston. It's pretty obvious that mass transit, airports, concerts, sporting events, school, etc... are vectors that spread the virus. It's also now proven this virus is NOT as deadly as we once thought, especially to healthy people, yet you haven't changed our approach with this new information. Matter of fact you seem to be doubling down. Contrary to what one might think this could be a great summer for Maine because people will want to flee the cities and Maine has the room for them to spread out and be safe. 

America must get back to work, if for nothing else than to honor those who gave their lives founding and protecting this nation.

Sincerely,

David Beemer

Bath, Maine

Former Naval Officer

Small Business Owner

Fort Popham on a busy day...

Did Sweden Get COVID-19 Right?

Sweden has lost about 1,000 citizens but as of Easter Sunday the trend is looking good. Both the number of cases and deaths are going down and I haven't heard reports of their medical system being overwhelmed.

By looking at these two charts it's pretty clear the worst is behind Sweden. When this is all over and people review the mounds of data they likely will conclude that Sweden's approach, although very different than the rest of the world, was legitimate.

The question I'm now asking myself is why this virus didn't spread aggressively throughout China? Somehow China's efforts to contain the virus internally worked, but these same efforts failed for rest of the world?

The W.H.O. announced on January 22nd that there WAS evidence of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan but more investigation was needed to understand the full extent of transmission. By this time is there serious doubt that China knew that human to human transmission was happening? How did China prevent internal spread? My guess... Yes it's a guess... They absolutely knew it was spreading person to person and at some point they determined it would be beneficial for China if the rest of the world got sick.

The only wild card that I can't figure out is how so many of the most extreme leaders in Iran got sick and died. How did they get exposed to the "L" strain? Did they visit the Wuhan bio-warfare lab looking to buy a weapon of mass destruction and inadvertently get exposed? Stranger things have happened.

It looks like Sweden, Italy, France, UK, Spain, US, etc... are all peaking with world death totals no where near "expert" projections generated just 10 days ago. Not only did computer modeling fail, the models failed on a level that is statistical impossible!

• 

Maine's Governor Closed Fort Baldwin

I live in Maine and our Governor closed ten areas, including Fort Baldwin due to the Coronavirus. Of the ten Fort Baldwin is rarely busy because it's virtually unknown and the parking lot can handle at most 10 cars, although I've never seen more than a handful.

My point... Our leaders are treating us like children. That and the Constitution isn't something to be taken lightly and closing anything in a state of fewer than a million people (it's still winter here and we are getting snow tomorrow) who's citizens typically practice social distancing nine months of every year, is suspect.

Why is Janet Mills doing this?

At best it's well intended, but I remind everyone that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. I believe this is just the start. Right now many states are violating the first amendment and various SCOTUS rulings regarding restrictions of movement.  How we the people respond will determine what happens next.

The government absolutely has the right and responsibility to quarantine the ill but telling healthy Americans they can't leave their homes unless they are getting food, taking care of someone or going to a job the government seems essential is nuts expecially in non-urban ureas.

Closing Fort Baldwin's 10 car parking lot is an example of government overreacting and if we don't push back what's next?

World War III - Is it Possible?

Like many I haven't posted for a while because I've been working 10-12 hours days for the last two weeks. It's been nuts and this latest market dump has exposed major weaknesses in the way I do business and communicate with my clients. Much of it due to government regulations and my company going above and beyond government guidelines which drives me nuts especially when those rules negatively impact the consumer, but that's not what I want or can talk about here.

World War III is something no one is talking about. I believe the "evil four" are up to something. Russia is talking to China. Iran is talking to China. China controls North Korea. Iran is talking with Russia and lastly China has at least 31 million more men than women. Doesn't anyone see a problem here?

The Wuhan Virus is bad but is it bad enough to justify locking down the western world? Can the American economy survive what some states and some local governments are doing? If it continues for months the answer is absolutely no!

Here is what few are talking about. Thousands are going to die as the result of the Wuhan Virus. We can save many if the infection curve is flatten to such an extent that the national health care system is not crushed, but at what cost? I argue the world economy is so interconnected that we are looking at a worldwide recession if not a depression in the coming weeks. In the past, it's the developing countries that suffer the most and millions will die directly and even more will suffer from a collapsed world economy.

Does it really make sense to save thousands at the cost of millions?

Furthermore, my specific warning is China, Russia, Iran and North Korea could easily use this crisis as a cover for advancing their objectives or even starting a war. I've been saying for years the United States Navy in the Pacific will loose as much as 50% of their forces in the first few days of a kinetic (shooting) war with China. I wouldn't put it past Putin to use this potential conflict to reposition Russia as a world leader and even Iran could use it to break the embargo that's crushing their economy and threating their leadership.

The world is not a safe place right now and the Wuhan Virus may represent the best chance in years for the evil four. China's economy was on a major downswing before the US trade sanctions and it's safe to say they were not looking forward to future negotiations with the Trump Administration. Russia's position in the world is nothing compared to what it was and with oil prices falling and the United States reclaiming energy dominance they are grabbing at straws. Furthermore, Putin is not getting any younger and my guess he is thinking legacy.

That leaves Iran and North Korea. Iran is on the verge of economic collapse and we haven't heard much of anything out of North Korea for quite a while. Both of these situations alarm me. Iran is the equivalent of a cornered animal and North Korea going dark is more than likely foreshadowing something bad. How a potential conflict will start I don't know, but it could quickly ramp up into something we don't want to think about. My guess... and it's a guess... is it will start with Iran and somehow that will involve China, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

If the media keeps pushing the administration to act and those actions result in the collapse of the US economy keep your eye on Iran, China, Russia and even North Korea. It's difficult to even mention this but the United States just might have to make decisions that cost lives now to save millions later. I hope our leaders are taking into consideration the big picture because I'm positive China and Russia have already war planned this senerario out in detail and will not pass up on a once in a lifetime chance to deal a blow to the United States.

PS  Russia has already sold it's US Treasuries. If China starts selling that will be a reg flag that they are positioning themselves for conflict if not a shooting war.

Impeachment - No Witnesses? No Documents?

The Democrats are asking how can the Senate have a trial without witnesses or documents? Didn't the House Democrats say repeatedly that this was a done deal? That the facts are not in doubt? However, I'm sitting here scratching my head feeling like I'm going nuts. Everyone on the news is saying it's looking like there will be NO witness or documents.

Here are the facts:

- The House questioned 18 witnesses in the "bunker" and released 17 transcripts.

- The House questioned 13 witnesses on national TV.

- 29,000 pages of documents have been delivered to the Senate.

During the impeachment inquiry the House Intelligence Committee did not offer the President due process or anything close to due process: He was NOT allowed representation. He was NOT allowed to call witnesses. He was NOT allowed to cross examine witness and he was NOT allowed to confront his accuser.

Serial killers are allowed due process but not the President? I acknowledge the President is not being charged with a crime and the worst thing that could happen is being removed from office but still a causal observer would think the President of the United States would be offered due process.

So what now? I think the Senate should vote to toss out the charges because the President's basic civil rights were violated.

That's not going to happen so I hope the Senate realizes it's not their job to make the House's case. If they want to hear from Lieutenant Colonel Vindman or Ambassadors Sondland go for it... I like seeing Senators sitting quietly for hours and hours.

Maybe they should follow past impeachments and have witnesses that already testified? I would like to hear from the 18th witness or at least redact and make public the missing transcript. Bottom line, the President is going to be acquitted by the State of the Union.

That said, who knows what dirty tricks the Dems, Deep State or Never Trumpers will hack up at the last minute.

Update: The vote against having MORE witnesses went down 51/49 with Susan Collins and Mitt Romney breaking ranks. Susan's vote I can understand as she is in a state that could go to the Dems later this year. Mitt Romney on the other hand won his seat with 62.6% of the vote and isn't up for election in over four years. My guess... Romey, like John McCain, just hates Trump.

Update: Monday there will be four hours of closing arguments and then two days of floor speeches followed with a vote on both articles of impeachment likely late Wednesday. The verdict is not in question and of course the Dems are saying it will be illegitimate because there were no witnesses or documents. A false narrative ignoring the 18 witnesses who testified in the "bunker" and the 29,000 pages of documents submitted to the Senate.

The bottom line... The President will be giving the State of the Union Address under the cloud of impeachment which may explain why Speaker Pelosi delayed delivering the articles of impeachment.

Last word... The vote is in. With the exception of Mitt Romney every republican and a few Democrats agree the impeachment of President Trump was a political exercise and not based upon facts. According to Nancy Pelosi the impeachment started years ago only recently taking final form in the bowels of the House's secure bunker that somehow leaked cherry picked tidbits that made the President look bad.

The phrase history will judge is contrite but in this case I believe it's appropriate. History will indeed look back at this impeachment, lacking any criminal offense, as exactly what our founders tried to prevent when they do carefully drafted Article 1, section 2 of our constitution.

Mark Gallid - It's Treason

MARK GALLID of "Christianity Today" wrote a scathing opinion piece declaring the phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky as the last straw and a threat to our Christianity based democracy.

The timing of his opinion  piece seems suspect and the TV interview of him from his cluttered kitchen speaks volumes.

Seriously? Clearly you think Trump is a total dick but it takes a phone call with the Ukrainian President asking him to work with our attorney general to find out what happened in 2016 as the straw that broke the camels back?

There is a pattern of action here... Trump gets dumped on and he lashes out. His honeymoon period lasted only hours before a corrupt media reported he removed the bust of MLK from the oval office? Crazy that over 60 elected officials refused to even attend the inauguration. Note, many on the left and the African American community still believe MLK's bust was removed.

Mark - This is what you're missing... Please read the IG nine page summary of how the FBI completely abused the FISA process and maybe you will start to understand, as I have, that forces within and outside our government have acted with treasonous intent. I'm not using treasonous to be flip. This is what happened and conspiracy to remove a duly elected President is treason.

Every rock should be turned over and those involved must be held accountable. Sir, there is no doubt this is a real threat to our democracy an I pray that God will help you see this truth sooner rather than later.

Tax Cuts Yield More Revenue?

It happens over and over. The CBO scored tbe Trump tax cut as costing something like $3.2 trillion dollars over the next ten years but the reality is revenue is up and growing.

FY 2019 - $3.44 trillion (projected)
FY 2018 - $3.33 trillion
FY 2017 - $3.32 trillion
FY 2016 - $3.27 trillion

Hey it would seem that the Dems and the CBO got the tax cut wrong... Revenue didn't decrease.

PS The CBO isn't biased but over and over they get it wrong and to me it seems their math always breaks one way. Lastly... What is up with our young people? Don't they know that communism and socialism kills millions and doesn't work?

FBI's Investigation Launched on Thinnest of Suspicions

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Monday, December 9, 2019

Statement by Attorney General William P. Barr on the Inspector General's Report of the Review of Four FISA Applications and Other Aspects of the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane Investigation

Attorney General William P. Barr issued the following statement:

"Nothing is more important than the credibility and integrity of the FBI and the Department of Justice.  That is why we must hold our investigators and prosecutors to the highest ethical and professional standards.  The Inspector General’s investigation has provided critical transparency and accountability, and his work is a credit to the Department of Justice.  I would like to thank the Inspector General and his team.

The Inspector General’s report now makes clear that the FBI launched an intrusive investigation of a U.S. presidential campaign on the thinnest of suspicions that, in my view, were insufficient to justify the steps taken.  It is also clear that, from its inception, the evidence produced by the investigation was consistently exculpatory.  Nevertheless, the investigation and surveillance was pushed forward for the duration of the campaign and deep into President Trump’s administration.  In the rush to obtain and maintain FISA surveillance of Trump campaign associates, FBI officials misled the FISA court, omitted critical exculpatory facts from their filings, and suppressed or ignored information negating the reliability of their principal source.  The Inspector General found the explanations given for these actions unsatisfactory.  While most of the misconduct identified by the Inspector General was committed in 2016 and 2017 by a small group of now-former FBI officials, the malfeasance and misfeasance detailed in the Inspector General’s report reflects a clear abuse of the FISA process.

FISA is an essential tool for the protection of the safety of the American people.  The Department of Justice and the FBI are committed to taking whatever steps are necessary to rectify the abuses that occurred and to ensure the integrity of the FISA process going forward.

No one is more dismayed about the handling of these FISA applications than Director Wray.  I have full confidence in Director Wray and his team at the FBI, as well as the thousands of dedicated line agents who work tirelessly to protect our country.  I thank the Director for the comprehensive set of proposed reforms he is announcing today, and I look forward to working with him to implement these and any other appropriate measures.

With respect to DOJ personnel discussed in the report, the Department will follow all appropriate processes and procedures, including as to any potential disciplinary action."

Furthermore...

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Monday, December 9, 2019

Statement of U.S. Attorney John H. Durham

“I have the utmost respect for the mission of the Office of Inspector General and the comprehensive work that went into the report prepared by Mr. Horowitz and his staff.  However, our investigation is not limited to developing information from within component parts of the Justice Department.  Our investigation has included developing information from other persons and entities, both in the U.S. and outside of the U.S.  Based on the evidence collected to date, and while our investigation is ongoing, last month we advised the Inspector General that we do not agree with some of the report’s conclusions as to predication and how the FBI case was opened.”

It's Undeniable Trump was Under Surveillance

Step back and look at the BIG picture. Take it in... The FBI created a narrative that Carter Page, former Naval officer, Naval Academy graduate who proactively told the FBI he had contact with Russia in conjunction with the CIA was put under surveillance to gain access to Trump.

The underlying narrative... The Russians had compromised Trump. Our nation spent two years and $32 million dollars investigating this only to prove it was a false flag.

It's undeniable candidate, President-elect & President Trump was under surveillance and this surveillance was coordinated by the FBI.  This is no longer in question. That during this surveillance over and over exculpatory evidence was discovered that Carter Page and other Trump associates had nothing to do with Russia. During the 2016 presidential campaign, transition and early months of the Trump Administration FBI surveillance continued under all things FISA.

I wrote how Admiral Mike Rogers was nearly fired when he informed then President-elect Trump that Trump Tower was under surveillance. Note: Trump left Trump Tower the next day and did not return until August 2017.

What will be written about this period in our nation's history? I know one thing... President Trump isn't tearing up our Constitution. He's not the guy who says over and over he can't use his executive power to change immigration policy and then signs an executive order (DACA) doing just that. He is not ordering the FBI to wiretap multiple members of the press and their families.

Trump might accuse the media of pushing false stores but he's not spying on or putting "journalists" in jail like the Obama Administration.

Trump's the guy who moved our Embassy to the capital of Israel. Actually doing something Congress voted on which became law in 1995.

Trump's the guy who gave lethal aid to Ukraine. Which unlike general aid was never put on hold.

Trump's the guy who __________. The list goes on and on. It's almost like he's trying to live up to his campaign promises.

Unless I see something actually impeachable I'm going to keep supporting President Trump's efforts.

Note: In 2017, Trump announced his intent to provide the Javelin missile to Ukraine. Congress approved the assistance package of 210 missiles and 37 launchers, together worth $47 million. During President Trump's call with the Ukrainian President it was clear Ukraine was almost ready for more Javelin missiles... Almost... I wonder how many tanks and armored vehicles had been destroyed thanks to President Trump? Nancy Pelosi is correct everything does lead back to Putin and in this case it's a missile blowing up a Russian tank!

Taxes are more than you think...

It just dawned on me that most people have no clue how much money the government collects in taxes. The following is an example of how much the government gets of the last $100 dollars I earn.

I make $100 and my taxes are:

$32.00 in federal income taxes.
$15.30 in self employment taxes.
$7.25 to the State of Maine.

With the $45.45 left over I purchase a 5 inch wedding cake from a great vegan baker to celebrate my third wedding anniversary.

I pay another $3.64 in Maine sales tax.

Now the baker has charged me $41.81 for her cake. Her costs which include everything from flour to oven gas adds up to $20.91 leaving her with a profit of $20.90 on which she pays:

$4.60 in federal income taxes.
$3.20 in self employment taxes.
$1.41 in state income taxes.

Total taxes on my $100 earned selling my services and buying a five inch wedding cake are $67.40 and I would argue the cost, pain and hassle required to figure this out and the angst not knowing if you figured it out correctly makes our whole system unbearable and yet we Americans, like the proverbial dog lying on a nail moaning, are doing nothing about it.

In the early 90's there was a organization that was hell bent on repealing the 16th Amendment. Although supported by John McCain, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Bill Archer, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Mike Gravel, John Lindner, Saxby Chambliss, etc... the repeal movement only gained marginal traction. Looking back it's obvious that those in power DON'T want to see any change to the income tax system. The current system absolutely hides the real cost of government and allows those in power to pick winners and losers.

Major tax reform is rarely possible. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 did many things including limiting the state income tax deduction to $10,000. This resulted in high taxed (typically democrat controlled) states crying foul. They have done everything they can to have the tax cut changed while low taxed (typically republican controlled) states cheered.

I'm absolutely for the repeal of the 16th amendment and using a National Retail Sales Tax (NRST) to fund the Federal Government. Many believe this is too radical, but since 1776 we have had a "legal" income tax for only 106 years. I say it's time that we once again align our nation's revenue system to what our founding fathers argued was best.

Note - The taxes continue as the baker buys products and services and those people make profits, etc... Furthermore, this example doesn't include property and personal property taxes which for many add up to thousands of dollars. As with an iceberg much of the true cost of taxation is hidden:

"If True" Trump's Ukrainian Call

I'm so tired of hearing journalists using the phrase "if true" when breaking a news story. The President of the United States asked the President of Ukraine to investigate possible corruption between Ukraine and Joe Biden's son Hunter Biden and the major media (less Fox News) goes off the rails. Democrats declare the Rubicon has been crossed and Trump needs to be impeached... Before the release of the call transcript?

Now that the transcript of the call between President Trump and the President of Ukraine is public the spin is absolutely insane. I can't imagine how anyone can rationally concluded the President broke any law based on the transcript of the call. Prior to the transcripts release the Department of Justice made it clear they reviewed the matter and concluded no violation of campaign finance law occurred.

So again, how does "if true" become the story when the fact that Hunter Biden made at least $83,000 a month as a board member of Burisma is broomed? Burisma is the largest natural gas producer in Ukraine and it has been reported that Hunter Biden worked for Burisma Holdings from May 2014 to early 2019. Do the math... That's over $4.3 million dollars paid to a board member with I think it's safe to say zero experience in the oil & gas industry. I wonder what the other board members made and what political connections they boast?

PS I believe that Hunter Biden leverage his father's job into millions from Ukraine, China and maybe others. It seems convenient the whistle blower came forward the day after it was clear the Muller investigation had failed to result in impeachment over a phone call that even my liberal wife, who happens to have a PhD in linguistics from Boston University, said was "perfect".

Enough About Brett Kavanaugh!

CBS News... News? I'm just dumbfounded that any major news outlet is still publishing salacious stories of "what" happened 35+ years ago. Someone coming forward and  "remembering" that something happened just isn't enough to smear a supreme Court judge.

Justice Kavanaugh's memories of freshman year are vague at best. The editors at CBS think stories from the Judge's freshman year are fair game... this isn't journalism, It's blatant partisanship. CBS knows no one can refute something that happened 35+ years, especially when details like dates aren't remembered.

Let's say everything CBS is now reporting is true. What you have is a drunk college freshman pulling his dick out at a party. This alone disqualifies Judge Kavanaugh? Something 35 years ago out weighs a 30 year career of treating women with respect and dignity in the workplace?

Doesn't anyone besides me have a problem here?

Hasn't anyone noticed there are zero accusations from co-workers or subordinates?

There once was a time where tabloids would publish stories like this, stories legit media outlets wouldn't touch under any circumstances. Clearly those days are over and the role of the press in our Republic is being mismanaged at best and the country on whole is much worse off.

The coordinated smear is the true existential treat to our democracy.

Media Spins the North Carolina Special Elections

Last night two Republicans win special elections and the results don't favor a Democratic take over in 2020 but that's NOT the story. When stories written by democratic operatives end up as the headlines in major newspapers and media outlets the results are far from harmless. this is exactly how you end up with Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke running for president thinking that he almost won Texas.

Only the Democrats can turn a pretty convincing loss into a victory. Only the Democratic party with the help of the media can turn a governor's race in Georgia with all-time voter turnout and a 50,000 vote deficit into voter suppression.

One would think the dream ticket would be Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams. I don't know what to think about North Carolina's special elections but I know spin when I see it and journalists are not supposed to spin! There is no doubt, absolutely no doubt, in my mind that fair journalism for the most part is dead in America.

* Mobile users click on reports below:

Open Letter to my Daughter

Here Are 12 Facts We Know About Gun Violence
According to Science

By Morgan McFall-Johnsen & Aylin Woodward
Business Insider, August 13, 2019

Most of this article… Well it’s pretty easy to pick apart. For starters when the phrase "According to Science" is used you pretty much know something isn't right. It's kinda like invoking God. So the one thing I agree with is gun violence should be rigorously studied and when something can be done that doesn't unduly infringe on the 2nd Amendment and the rights of law abiding citizens, changes should be made.

That said, suggesting that the President is the voice of reason or fact when it comes to guns is a stretch at best. For example, his comments suggesting a link between video games and gun violence has been studied to death with very little correlation and some of the correlation that does exist even suggesting a decrease in gun violence is actually more likely than an increase.

I will address a few items I thought interesting:

“When people convicted of domestic abuse were barred from buying guns, gun deaths decreased.” So let’s discuss how the Earth is flat. Duh, clearly this isn’t a reason to ban or restrict gun ownership to law abiding, none abusive spouses. It’s a false argument against guns and a good argument for nationwide “red flag” laws. I do have concerns who determines the red flag and what a red flag is but you had me at “convicted” and I’m all in for something along this line.

“By contrast, Switzerland, which has high gun ownership but hasn't seen a mass shooting in 18 years, has strict gun policies including rigorous licensing procedures (including training) and restrictions on who can buy guns.” Again this argument seems out of place. Clearly this is making the case, at least in Switzerland, that gun ownership isn't the problem, people are the problem. It’s the people who don’t go through a rigorous background check, training, etc… that cause problem. It’s pretty much the same in the United States which is why I’m 100% for rigorous background checks to include fingerprints, class room training and live fire before someone can own a handgun.

Why handguns and not long guns? Because I choose to go after what’s responsible for 90% of all gun deaths. Furthermore, don’t forget that 2/3 of all gun deaths in the US are suicides. It’s possible, but not many people kill themselves with an AR-15 or shotgun.

“There's also a clear link between assault weapons and gun-massacre deaths. After Congress let a 1994 ban on assault weapons expire in 2004, gun massacres increased by 183 percent, and associated deaths went up 239 percent.” Really? Clear link? Yep, I’ve seen this before and I’ve seen just the opposite, had the statistics shown that the “Assault Weapons Ban” was effective the law would have been renewed.

Google how many people are killed in the United States with assault weapons in mass shootings?

Google the number of people hit by lighting in the United States every year.

Google the number of bank robberies that typically happen in Los Angeles per year.

Funny, those numbers are all about the same which shouldn’t shock you if you have studied the issue.

Now Google how many suicides, shootings, deaths and murders are by handguns versus long guns. I would suggest you use the FBI database for your best numbers. Pretty shocking and now you, like me, know when a politician goes on and on about banning assault weapons either they haven’t looked at the numbers or they just don’t give a rip and are doing what they can to get reelected.

“Researchers and policy experts think a new ban on assault weapons could reduce mass-shooting deaths.” Okay that’s a pretty safe assessment but if saving lives is the driving force wouldn’t it make more sense to make our roads safer (40,000 deaths last year) or focus on drug overdoses (60,000+ deaths last year) than assault weapons?

Also, what is the cost of banning assault weapons?

The 2nd Amendment has NOTHING to do with hunting. The 2nd Amendment is second because it’s protecting the 1st which is actually the five things a free society can’t do without. Freedom of: Religion, Speech, Press, Assemble and to Petition our Government for Redress of Grievances.

You once said it was silly to think an armed American population would stand a chance against a modern army. Well, it would seem a few thousand goat herders armed with not much more have kept the world’s two greatest militaries from victory in Afghanistan. Furthermore, it’s not too hard to imaging small arms and semiautomatic rifles being used to storm an armory to obtain more lethal weapons.

“A lack of background checks is also associated with higher rates of gun violence.” No doubt, which is why the background system needs to be overhauled and implemented as Congress intended. Unlike previous Presidents, Trump has actually passed legislation to do just that. I’m all for this and would like to add that if someone prohibited from buying a gun, knowingly attempts to buy a gun they absolutely should be prosecuted and spend a year in jail.

Furthermore, any crime that is committed with a gun should automatically have five years tacked onto their sentence. Use a gun in a crime and you get five years. Not five years plea bargained away but five years minimum added to your sentence.

“Finally, concealed-carry policies are also associated with increased firearm homicide rates.” I happen to agree that universal concealed-carry is not a good idea. I would also like to point out that many cities with horrific gun violence inevitably have the most restrictive gun laws. The argument that our cities have gun issues because neighboring states have slack gun laws doesn’t logically apply to conceal carry. Although stop and frisk sure seems unconstitutional it worked wonders in New York City because bad guys don't care about the law!

Before anyone goes off and suggests new gun laws it’s really important to study areas of the country that have strict very gun laws and high crime. Also, there are a few cases where gun laws were overturned and stats changed for the better suggesting that some laws with good intentions end up making matters worse.

For example in DC, gun ownership was effectively outlawed which resulted in an increase in violent crime and home invasions. When the Supreme Court overturned these gun laws (DC v. Heller) the number of home invasions decreased. If one were to believe the NRA, then guns or the presence of a gun helps prevent over 2,000,000 crimes per year.

I don’t believe this and I don’t believe most of what this article is trying to convey. I’ve researched this issue at nausea. I’ve blogged about it a dozen times with exhaustive research and facts documented with government provided numbers or well researched, peer reviewed studies and I've determined most members of the media and politicians are clueless when it comes to guns.

Considering the number of guns in the United States and the arguments the left makes regarding gun control I’m shocked we don’t have 100 times the number of mass shooting. Clearly, guns themselves aren’t bad, but guns in the hands of people who aren’t trained, have a criminal background, have a desire to randomly kill people, are clinically depressed, are terrorists, are children, etc… can and do have devastating impact albeit nothing compared to the carnage on our roads and drug overdoses.

America is a unique and we are very much still an experiment waiting for a result. Many who live in cites don’t see a reason for anyone to have a gun while those who live deep in the interior of Alaska or Montana can’t imagine a walk in the woods without one.

I didn’t own a handgun for the first forty-three years of my life and I rarely questioned my safety. Then I started to hear politicians seriously talking about banning guns and I thought to myself that maybe one day I might actually need a weapon and not be able to buy one. Not to hunt or defend against the zombie apocalypse mind you but to ban together with fellow Americans in order to protect the Constitution of the United States, specifically the five freedoms of the 1st Amendment.

Yes innocent people die in shootings and that makes me sad but there is no doubt, given enough time, history will repeat and the cost of not being ready could once again cost millions, if not tens of millions of lives. In the twentieth century over 130,000,000 people died at the hands of governments. Scholars says this will not happen again but maybe the fusion of communism and capitalism is more efficient and leads to a new world order. What them? One common factor over the centuries is freedom is something that has proven costly.

“… The spirit of resistance to government is so valuable on certain occasions, that I wish it to be always kept alive. It will often be exercised when wrong, but better so than not to be exercised at all. I like a little rebellion now and then. It is like a storm in the atmosphere.”  Thomas Jefferson on Liberty